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The Iran Crisis: War, Regime Pressures and Regional Power Shifts
- THE GEOSTRATA
- 7 hours ago
- 8 min read
The combined US-Israel operations - Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion, followed by Iran's retaliatory attacks under Operation Truthful Promise 4, once again plunged West Asia into crisis. The ongoing war is projected to last for 4-5 weeks or longer, potentially exerting a significant impact on the global economy and supply chain resilience. The key motive behind the sudden escalation amid mediation talks under Oman remains unclear.
Illustration by The Geostrata
The Trump administration, however, offered a variety of reasons, including Tehran's uranium enrichment to “extremely dangerous levels”, urgent elimination of its ballistic missile program, the regime’s brutal crackdown on its citizens and the need for preemptive strikes due to possible attacks from the Iranian side on the US bases in the Middle East.
The attack’s ulterior motives could be a regime change, thereby installing a friendly government and exerting control over Iran's oil reserves, which account for 24% of oil reserves in West Asia and 12% globally. This also includes strategic influence over the Strait of Hormuz, from where China sources 40-45% of its crude oil imports.
The Trump administration sought to follow “the Venezuelan model’’ in Iran, after the assassination of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. However, Iran is not Venezuela. Geographically, it is 7,153 miles away from the US, whereas Venezuela constitutes Washington’s strategic backyard. In terms of area, Venezuela is 912,050 sq km, whereas Iran has a strategic depth of 1,648,195 sq km, and virtually controls the crucial chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz.
One-fifth of the oil supply from Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, flows through this 34 km wide strait.
Politically, Venezuela has had an organised opposition and an existing consensus to change its policies according to Washington's preferences. Iran, by contrast, is a theocratic state controlled by an ideologically powerful clergy. Despite the regime’s crackdown, its streets were flooded with pro-regime demonstrators after Khamenei’s death, and Iran’s lack of an organised political movement owing to the strong control exercised by the IRGC, which remains loyal to the current regime. This deeply entrenched power structure in Iran makes the US’s ambition of a people-driven regime change a distant possibility.
INDIA'S IMMEDIATE STRATEGIC AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
The ongoing war in India’s extended neighbourhood creates multidimensional challenges for its policymakers. India has witnessed increased exports of gems and jewellery, electronics, basmati rice and other products from labour-intensive sectors, aided by recent trade deals with Gulf nations. At the same time, India receives around 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and sources nearly 85–90% of its LPG imports from West Asia. At present, India has sufficient stocks of crude oil and energy products (petrol and diesel) for the next 25 days each, cumulatively accounting for 50 days of sufficiency.
However, the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and threats from the Houthis in the Red Sea could significantly impact the nation’s energy security. The conflict has also unfolded amid a recent decline in energy imports from Russia and a rising share of supplies from West Asia and Venezuela.
However, India has limited capacity to refine the heavy, sour, viscous and thicker grade of Venezuelan crude.
Tehran seeks to exert pressure on Washington to de-escalate by targeting airbases and critical infrastructure, including airports, ports and oil refineries in allied countries. India also has a diaspora of around 10 million people in the region, and with frequent airspace closures and attacks on airports, ensuring their safety and evacuation remains a significant challenge. Rising oil prices and disruptions to India’s exports to the region are already exerting pressure on India’s current account deficit (CAD).
LONG-TERM GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA AND THE REGION
While these may be short-term impacts, India will have to tackle significant challenges in the long run. The present regime in Iran, despite its relatively hostile stance on the Kashmir issue, has largely been favourable towards deepening ties with New Delhi, embarking on crucial connectivity projects such as the Chabahar Port, the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), and the TAPI pipeline. These initiatives have been central to India’s efforts to expand regional connectivity and access markets in Central Asia and greater Eurasia.
Additionally, both nations cooperate on several multilateral forums such as BRICS, SCO, and G20. Though India has reduced its oil imports from Iran following the sanctions by the West, it continues to rank among Iran’s five largest trade partners in recent years. Major Indian exports to Iran include rice, tea, sugar, pharmaceuticals, manmade staple fibres, electrical machinery, artificial jewellery, etc., while major Indian imports from Iran consist of dry fruits, inorganic/organic chemicals, glassware, etc. In case of a regime change or installation of a US-friendly government, the future of these ties remains uncertain.
The previous government in Tehran under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was largely unfavourable to New Delhi. Under the Shah, Iran maintained a pro-Pakistan stance and offered crucial military aid to Islamabad during the 1965 and 1971 wars with India, much of which was provided under directions from the US. Alternatively, a Western-friendly regime may also strengthen India’s energy security, improve the regional security architecture through a crackdown on Iran’s proxies, Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah and help India’s strategic balance between Iran and its Arab partners.
West Asia is now fraught with rivalries and hostile entanglements. Saudi Arabia has recently signed a NATO-style defence pact with Pakistan, the sole Islamic nuclear nation. A possible decline of the Iranian dominance in the region after the war may position Israel as the single major power in the region, further pushing the Arab nations towards a greater strategic partnership with Pakistan, given its role in troop mobilisation, training, etc.
In such a scenario, Türkiye is also likely to expand its strategic footprint across West Asia, seeking to fill the emerging power vacuum, an outcome that may not align with India’s interests, given Ankara’s increasingly assertive regional posture and its position on issues such as Kashmir and Pakistani state-sponsored cross-border terrorism.
However, despite Iranian attacks on Riyadh, Islamabad did not risk opening a new front amid its border clashes with Afghanistan. Any Pakistani involvement denotes instability at India's borders.
As a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region, India’s strategic role was brought into focus by such developments, particularly when the IRIS Dena, having participated in the MILAN 2026 naval exercises and the International Fleet Review hosted by the Indian Navy in Visakhapatnam, was subsequently attacked by the US within India’s broader maritime sphere of influence, thereby complicating the regional security environment. Amid this turmoil, India sought to reaffirm its role as a responsible actor and guardian of regional peace by facilitating the docking of another Iranian vessel, IRIS Lavan, in Kochi.
Engaged in a staunch rivalry with Saudi Arabia in Yemen, the UAE has recently signed a Letter of Intent for a Comprehensive Strategic Defence Partnership with India. Furthermore, India occupies a significant position in the regional security and developmental architecture through forums like I2U2 (India, Israel, the US, and the UAE), and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, making New Delhi a crucial player in the region.
New Delhi continues to assert its strategic autonomy in the region, from Prime Minister Modi’s high-profile visits to Oman and Jordan in December 2025 and hosting foreign ministers of Arab countries in January, to bonhomie with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu during his recent visit to Tel Aviv in February, while ensuring limited engagement in the Gaza Board of Peace, established within the framework of President Trump’s policy approach, which is being viewed with scepticism even by the US’s Western allies, including France, owing to the dominance of the US President.
The Chabahar project, a flagship Indian investment in the region, has suffered a significant setback due to the ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The US has extended the sanctions waiver for six months, set to expire this April. Moreover, the project has not received any allocation in this year’s Union Budget. Both Iran and Afghanistan serve as critical gateways for India’s access to Central Asia, a region vital for the supply of rare earths and energy. While Iran is embroiled in the ongoing conflict and Afghanistan remains engaged in border clashes with Pakistan, India’s plans for strengthening connectivity with Central Asia face growing uncertainty.
The IMEEC is another ambitious project that has been impacted since the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas. With critical infrastructure in IMEEC partners such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, and others under attack, the project faces another set of difficulties.
The ongoing war has deepened regional polarisation, potentially disrupting the economic cooperation between Gulf states and Israel that lies at the heart of IMEEC. Rising security concerns are also likely to increase insurance and operational costs, thereby weakening investor confidence in the project. While the crisis underscores the long-term strategic necessity of IMEEC as an alternative trade route, especially amid disruptions in the Persian Gulf, it simultaneously delays its implementation, as key regional partners remain directly exposed to the conflict.
EMERGING LESSONS IN TECHNOLOGY AND DETERRENCE
Beyond these implications, the conflict also offers important lessons for India in the evolving domain of digital warfare. The significant role played by Anthropic’s Claude models in the Iranian conflict highlights how Artificial Intelligence is increasingly shaping modern battlefields through planning, organising intelligence inputs and targeting with greater precision. In the US-led strikes, Claude was used for intelligence assessments, identifying and prioritising targets, and simulating battle scenarios, effectively compressing the “kill chain” and enabling faster operational decisions.
China is already investing heavily in developing AI models to assist in war planning, including the strategic positioning of military assets and operational decision-making. The PLA is integrating AI across intelligence, cyber operations, and unmanned systems. Beijing is actively pursuing “intelligence warfare,” where AI supports real-time battlefield data processing and predictive analysis.
The PLA has also experimented with AI-assisted command systems, drone swarms, and autonomous platforms, alongside using AI for network reconnaissance and information operations.
India, too, must leverage its ongoing advancements in artificial intelligence to strengthen its preparedness for an emerging era of technology-driven warfare. This would require crucial investment in the indigenous defence AI ecosystems, integration of AI into military doctrines, and the development of human-in-the-loop systems to ensure both operational effectiveness and ethical oversight.
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND THE SEARCH FOR STABILITY
The US-Iran conflict further raises questions about the role of international organisations like the UN. The Trump administration has explicitly expressed that it would not follow rules or fight “politically correct wars”.
The US aggression on Venezuela and Iran may further encourage Russia to intensify its offensive warfare against Ukraine and may accelerate Chinese plans to invade Taiwan, especially as Washington’s growing focus on the Western Hemisphere under the “renewed Monroe Doctrine” targeting Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, etc., and its deeper entanglement in West Asia could overstretch its military supply lines reducing its attention in the Indo-Pacific.
Moreover, the fact that North Korea has avoided a similar fate largely due to its possession of nuclear weapons reinforces the enduring logic of nuclear deterrence. This may trigger a new wave of nuclear proliferation, or at least encourage more states to pursue lethal ballistic missile capabilities, as countries seek stronger deterrence mechanisms to safeguard their sovereignty.
The ongoing conflict carries several global implications, and a prolonged war does not serve the world’s interests. As European powers rally behind the US, while Russia and China maintain a studied silence, the Global South remains the only ray of hope. These nations are bracing for potential threats to their economies, food security, and energy security. In this context, there is an urgent need for collective diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation and stabilise the region.
India, as the voice of the Global South, should actively engage with its partners to work towards the restoration of regional peace and stability. By leveraging its strategic autonomy and diplomatic outreach, New Delhi can play a constructive role in bridging divides, advocating dialogue, and supporting multilateral efforts to de-escalate tensions. Such an approach would not only safeguard its own national interests but also reinforce its position as a responsible stakeholder in an increasingly fragmented global order.
BY HARSHITHA
COVERING MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS
TEAM GEOSTRATA
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