Regional Turbulence: Myanmar's Instability, China's Stakes, and Implications for India.

In February 2021, a coup d’état was orchestrated in Myanmar which toppled the democratic government of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party. Ever since, the country is under the control of military junta i.e. Tatmadaw whose takeover has led to authoritarianism, ethnic conflict, and violence. Myanmar or the erstwhile Burma has witnessed long-standing ethnic strife and failure of democratic model of governance since its inception in 1948.

Illustration by The Geostrata

Myanmar’s civil war is the bone of contention between the Tatmadaw and several ethnic armed organisations (EAO) like the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Arakan Army (AA), Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), etc, whose objective is to acquire greater autonomy in their respective regions inside Myanmar. Prominent EAOs in current times comprise of Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army who have formed the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BTA) which had been instrumental in Operation 1027, an offensive against the military junta in Shan State and other regions in 2023.

Amidst these intricacies, the definitive role of China has shaped its strategic interests in the region and India, too, seeks to function to safeguard its national interests. On one hand, Myanmar is a crucial gateway for China’s Belt and Road Initiative and a link to have wider access to the Indian Ocean, while on the other, it is India’s bridge to Southeast Asia, highlighting India’s Act East policy. Crucial aspects involve the outlook and actions of these two neighbours in Myanmar and its strategic, economic impact within the neighbourhood.

CHINA'S INTERESTS IN MYANMAR 

China was amongst the few countries to recognise the military regime in Myanmar after the 2021 coup. Amidst the western sanctions, it is China that has provided the Junta with economic, military, and political aid. Sharing a border of 2129 km, they have historical and cultural ties as well. Owing to Myanmar’s strategic position, it is China’s gateway to access Bay of Bengal and ultimately the Indian Ocean.

China is Myanmar’s largest foreign trade partner and Chinese investments amount to 26% of total FDI. Moreover, it has been the main supplier of advanced weaponry to the Junta government which contributes to $267 million and includes missiles, tanks, fighter jets, etc. China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) includes strategically crucial projects for both China and Myanmar. These involve physical infrastructure such as Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ) port, Kyaukphyu-Kunming Railway, oil and gas pipeline, etc.

Post military coup, these investments have been augmented to include a rail-road-Indian Ocean route which connects Chengdu and Yunnan province in China to Singapore via, Shan state, and Yangon port in Myanmar, further a trade route connecting Chongqing in southwest China to Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand, and finally a maritime route connecting Beibu gulf port in China to Yangon port. These efforts are envisaged to achieve China’s dream of having a ‘backdoor’ access to the Indian Ocean. This will facilitate its trade connectivity and economic cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region for the Chinese.

Apart from economic and military assistance, China supports Myanmar’s military junta on international platforms like the United Nations by vetoing resolutions that condemn it.

However, China balances its stance as it supports the EAOs and has most recently participated in Operation 1027 which was conducted by Three Brotherhood Alliance on October 27th, 2023. This operation was waged against the military junta’s State Administration Council (SAC) in Shan State. This operation had tacit approval from China as 3BTA promised to eradicate cyber-scam operations from Northern borders areas which hinders Chinese interests.

Myanmar National Democratic Alliance army claim to have liberated four ports in Shan province like Qingshui River port, Menggu National Gate, Bangsai port and Muse Golden Triangle port which are entry points to China. China has opted to mediate to broker peace between the 3BTA and military junta in Shan which led to a ceasefire agreement. In Rakhine state, however, there was an attempt to mediate between AA and the Junta but it was in vain. What drives China towards these peace agreements is; its strategically driven investments in BRI’s infrastructural projects.

IMPLICATOIN OF MYANMAR'S INSTABILITY ON INDIA

India and Myanmar share a land border of 1643 km which goes through four north-east Indian states and a maritime border through Andaman Sea, Coco Channel and Bay of Bengal. For India, Myanmar is a link to South-east Asia and is crucial under its Act East Policy. Strategic projects like Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway Project are key India’s interests in Myanmar and ultimately to connect with other ASEAN nations.

WITH FOCUS ON NORTH-EAST INDIA

Many ethnic groups like Mizo, Kuki, Chin have cross-border relations. To foster those relations, the Free Movement Regime (FMR) was agreed upon in 2018, leading to cross-border movement up to 16 km without visa. This facilitated trade, cultural ties, healthcare, etc. However, this has led to grave consequences for India’s north-eastern region (NER) post military coup in 2021. This has aggravated internal security concerns in NER, especially in the Indian state of Manipur since May 2023.

There are multiple internal and external reasons that have led to instability in Manipur. It has around 380 km of unfenced border with Myanmar which has raised concerns regarding insurgency threat, refugee crisis and illicit trade of drugs and contraband. This has resulted in suspension of FMR. Being at the critical junction of the Golden Triangle of drugs trade, illicit trade from Myanmar is carried out which reaches India’s NER. From transits points at Moreh in Manipur, Rih-Champhai in Mizoram, etc, opium, heroin is smuggled along with other contrabands. High influx of refugees in border states like Manipur, Mizoram has posed a security threat for India’s NER.

The Chin-Kuki refugees from Myanmar are claimed to have contributed towards violence in Manipur. Unfenced border has led to getaway for insurgent groups from NER to Myanmar or even getting access to arms, ammunition, drugs, counterfeiting money, and various other contrabands.

WAY FORWARD

India has guided its policy with Myanmar based on a pragmatic approach in the realist realm of International Relations. It has cooperated with the Junta government as it is crucial for India’s internal security matters. What lies ahead is to expand the engagement with various stakeholders to guard India’s interests which are strategic and crucial. Maintaining ties with ethnic groups like Rakhine, Kachin, Chin, etc is vital to secure north-eastern borders which have currently become the new front of instability.

India should urge stakeholders in Myanmar to resort for peaceful resolution and cater to development in the region. This would aid the ethnic communities as well to develop in economical, and social domains.

NER is landlocked and far from India’s centre, hence its fragility aggravates as the neighbourhood becomes hostile. Therefore, focus on NER is the dire need of the hour and the approach must be multi-faceted. A comprehensive plan of socio-economic development and capacity building should be developed to better integrate the region.

In conclusion, both China and India cater towards their strategic interests in the region. The approach of China is to secure and prosper its projects under BRI for its better positioning in the world. For India, along with its interests lies the urge to restore democracy in its neighbourhood; presently in the case of Myanmar and Bangladesh to secure peace in the region. Whereas for China, type of government doesn’t matter but resources, economic potential, strategic location matters.

This is where the difference lies as China aims to use strategies related to military aggression, political pressure or economic policies like ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ but India’s objective lies in securing its interests as well as collaborating on equal partnerships. On the epicentre of the conflict, lies a possible solution to restore stability in the region with collaboration from India and China.

With the recent border resolution between India and China in Ladakh, it envisages better cooperation between the two nations. This trijunction with focus to Myanmar and neighbouring developing countries have potential to prosper due to its demographic, resources, and strategic location. Two powerful nations in the neighbourhood could open new avenues for these countries to foster cooperation in the heart of South Asia and Southeast Asia.

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BY ARYA GHADIGAONKAR

TEAM GEOSTRATA

info@thegeostrata.com