Navigating New Waters: India's Strategic Journey Towards a Blue-Water Navy

The ocean has always represented a kind of duality for India: it has offered far-reaching opportunities while exposing subtle weaknesses. The extent of India’s maritime footprint, with 7,516 kilometres of coastline and more than 2.4 million sq kilometres of Exclusive Economic Zone, dwarfs India’s landmass.

While the Indian Ocean Region holds strategic significance for India, it also represents the economic lifeblood of the world. Approximately 40% of the physical oil trade and 70% container traffic pass through these routes. The stakes for India are even higher, with 90% of its trade and nearly 80% of its crude oil by volume supported by these routes. 

As it looks forward to a mark of a $5 trillion economy, the vitality of protecting these routes becomes paramount. The most profound change in the landscape of strategic power in Asia has been the transition of the Indian Navy from a coast-centric naval force to a blue-water navy providing operational autonomy in the conduct of operations in the high seas. The transformation reveals India’s embrace of the unseen forces of new realities shaping the region, perhaps registered as perceived prestige.

WHAT IS BLUE-WATER NAVY?

To better understand the ambitions of the Indian Navy, one must first understand the concept of a blue-water navy beyond simply counting the number of platforms in its fleet.

A blue-water navy signifies the height of projection of maritime power far beyond regional (green-water) or coastal (brown-water) fleets in terms of reach and sustainability for long-term operations.

Clear ways to evaluate that capability include, for example, a navy with many aircraft carriers because this gives it the ability to project power in multiple regions in parallel; a navy with advanced systems of replenishment at-sea so that its fleets can remain on the ocean for extended periods of time; and a navy with a large enough force structure, usually more than 125-150 major warships, with emerging access agreement or global bases.

The U.S. Navy is the preeminent blue-water navy in the world today. It consists of eleven carrier strike groups along with bases around the world, maintaining a constant presence in the Atlantic, Indo-Pacific, and Mediterranean.

Other blue-water navies are the British Royal Navy, operating Queen Elizabeth-class carriers and with access to forward bases around the world, and the French Marine Nationale, which operates the Charles de Gaulle carrier and its overseas territories.

The PLAN of China is also developing into a serious blue-water force, increasing to three carriers, and building overseas logistics hubs in Djibouti, Cambodia, and possibly other locations in the future. Russia possesses a blue-water capability too, but is limited by economics and projects indirectly with its longer-range nuclear submarines, as well as sporadic deployments from the Northern Fleet.

What true blue-water capability means is being able to operate far from home for long stretches of time, including continuous deployments of carrier groups, global anti-piracy missions, Freedom of Navigation missions, and multi-faceted operations.

THE "WHY": THE NECESSITY FOR A BLUE-WATER NAVY

Strategic considerations underlying India's vital naval restructuring include the growing reliance on the sea, with roughly 4.5 million barrels of crude oil entering India each day and 65% more liquefied natural gas imported into the country since 2015. These critical resources undergo passage through key maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, and Bab-el-Mandeb, that are becoming increasingly unstable in the current geopolitical scenario.

A significant external consideration is China's rapid naval development. The PLA Navy now has an approximate total of over 370 battle-force ships, including 3 aircraft carriers, 58 frigates, 62 destroyers, and 12 nuclear submarines (making it the fastest growing fleet in modern history).

China's influence in the Indian Ocean has become more evident with the establishment of its "String of Pearls" network, which supports its wider engagement in the region, including its use of ports and facilities such as Gwadar and Hambantota, as well as its military base in Djibouti. China routinely positions 6-8 naval vessels in the region at any one time, which is supported by a large fleet of research and surveillance vessels.

From 2019-2023, its research vessels spent an estimated cumulative total of 64 active or survey vessels in the Indian Ocean region, measuring and recording invaluable hydrographic data for the purposes of submarine operations.

THE "HOW": THE TRAJECTORY AND CURRENT STATUS

India's naval modernization reflects both substantial progress and major deficiencies. On one hand, our naval capacity has improved with the acquisition of the carrier INS Vikramaditya and the newly built indigenous carrier INS Vikrant, with a capacity of approximately 30 aircraft.

Not only is INS Vikrant the first indigenous aircraft carrier, its 75% indigenous content marks a significant milestone in India's capacity to build warships.

India's undersea fleet is also developing steadily. Following the commissioning of the nuclear-powered INS Arihant, with an assured credible deterrent of K-15 missiles, and the tests for the recently commissioned INS Arighat, India's underwater ability is only going to get stronger. Also, while India's conventional submarine build capacity continues to improve with general timelines for Project 75's six Scorpène-class submarines, the larger and critical $5.2-billion Project 75(I) is still waiting for sign-off and subsequent build-out.

Naval aviation has been enhanced by the induction of 12 P-8I Maritime Patrol Aircraft for $3.6 billion and multi-role maritime MH-60R helicopters worth $2.6 billion. Also, the Visakhapatnam-class destroyers equipped with BrahMos missiles and new Nilgiri-class frigates reflect an increasing ability to design ships in India on the surface warship side. The Navy now has around 130–140 ships in service and plans to grow to 175–200 by 2030, with over 60 ships under construction or in planning.

Central to this evolution is also the steady enhancement of anti-submarine warfare and drone capabilities, through both advanced acquisitions and indigenous development. Platforms like P-8I Poseidon, MH-60R helicopters, ASW-SWC, and indigenous sensors and weapons strengthen sea control from the coasts to the deep ocean. Simultaneously, integration of unmanned systems like MQ-9B Sea Guardian and autonomous drone swarms extends reach and reduces manpower risk for sustained deterrence across the Indo-Pacific.

Yet, there are challenges. The Navy's share of the defence budget has risen by 0.4% from 2013-14 to 2023-24, causing slow modernization. Several prominent programs, such as Project 75(I), are yet to be funded, as are next-generation destroyers and the proposed third aircraft carrier (IAC-2). All of these issues will cause significant delays in achieving an effective blue-water capacity timely manner.

IMPORTANCE IN CURRENT CONTEXT

A strong navy is more than just a guardian of the seas; it can enhance diplomacy, support regional stability and tranquillity, and advance a nation’s interests in the region. While the Indian Navy observes Chinese movements closely, at the same time, it offers opportunities to regional states to divest their dependency on the growing Chinese presence. The situation offers India an opportunity to enhance its record as a cooperative and responsible maritime power through initiatives like SAGAR.

India’s participation in regional partnerships, including the QUAD, is expanding and growing with exercises like MALABAR now involving complex carrier operations and advanced anti-submarine warfare with the US, Japan, and Australia. Indian warships also have a continual presence in seven significant regions through mission-based deployments, including the Persian Gulf, the Malacca Strait, and the Andaman Sea.

Of late, emphasis has also been put on developing indigenous ship building capacity to ensure strategic autonomy and security from supply chain shocks.

With over 67% of Navy's capital acquisition from Indian industries in the last decade, Indian Naval Indigenisation Plan (INIP) is proving to be a strong push towards self-reliance and technological maturity. 

China, however, outpaces the Indian navy in this field, both in scale and speed. Capable of producing advanced vessels, modern warships like Type 005 destroyers, frigates and carriers, along with rapid replenishment capacity, it has established its naval superiority in the region. Backed by one the largest shipbuilding infrastructure and massive state-backed capacity, the PLAN stands capable of challenging even the US Navy in hull count and production speed. 

On the economic front, the Navy protects India’s energy supply, which alone accounts for over US$150 billion in annual energy imports, and protects offshore assets that are crucial to the expanding blue economy, which is projected to contribute US$1.5 trillion to India’s GDP by 2047.

INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATIONS AND EXCERSISES

India has also strengthened its maritime partnerships with major powers, including the United States. As a result of agreements with the United States, namely LEMOA (2016), COMCASA (2018), and BECA (2020), the Indian Navy was granted access to logistics bases, including Diego Garcia, Guam, and Bahrain.

Russia remains a significant partner through continued BrahMos programs and potential leasing of Akula-class submarines. With France, India's partnership continues through Scorpène programs and access to French naval bases as outlined in Reunion and Djibouti.

India has also expanded its regional presence through its partnerships with Singapore, South Korea, Oman, etc. Finally, exercises like MILAN, which now include over 40 navies, further push India's expansion into regional maritime presence.

ADDRESSING THE HURDLES

Despite significant budget constraints, slow procurement, and a rapidly modernizing Chinese fleet (which is expected to achieve roughly 400 ships by 2025), there is a well-defined path for the Indian Navy to develop into a true blue-water navy.

This is evidenced by the ambitious plans to acquire 67 new ships by 2030 and an increase in indigenous content from 43% to almost 70%. The Indian Navy is better positioned to advance in its development of maritime power in the coming decade.

The expansion of the Indian Navy is reflective of a broader strategic shift: India's emergence as a confident regional power with a growing global role. As Indo-Pacific competition now intensifies, India's capacity to maintain a capable blue-water navy will be critical not only for its own security but also for the stability of the Indian Ocean region.

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BY ADITI SHREE

TEAM GEOSTRATA

info@thegeostrata.com