QUAD and the New Indo-Pacific Balance: India’s Strategic Calculus Amid Great Power Competition

India is set to host two key summits in 2026, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and the BRICS, assuming crucial geopolitical significance across the Indo-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America. New Delhi’s active role in the BRICS underscores India's outreach to the Global South, working towards a multipolar world order. The QUAD, on the other hand, has a diversified agenda ranging from maritime security to developmental partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.

Illustration by The Geostrata

The initial efforts towards this grouping date back to the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean, when the four countries joined hands to form the “tsunami core group” to coordinate on the emergency response and humanitarian assistance. At present, the QUAD represents 24% of the world's population, accounts for 35% of global GDP, and 18% of total global trade.

FROM DIALOGUE TO STRATEGIC COORDINATION

The credit for cementing the foundations of the QUAD is attributed to the late former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, who first articulated the idea of an “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” involving India, Japan, the US and Australia in his remarkable address to the Indian Parliament called the “Confluence of the Two Seas” in 2007. 

With growing Chinese military activities in East Asia and the South China Sea, Shinzo Abe, in 2012, proposed a “Security Diamond” to preserve freedom of navigation in the region.

Following the escalation of India–China tensions in the Galwan Valley in 2020–21, the grouping gained new momentum. This culminated in the first in-person leaders’-level Quad summit meeting hosted by US President Joe Biden in September 2021.

The QUAD grouping strongly emphasises a “free, open and inclusive” security architecture in the Indo-Pacific. In this direction, several initiatives ranging from the annual multilateral exercise of the QUAD nations- “Malabar”, along with other multilateral exercises including La Perouse, RIMPAC, Pitch Black, and bilateral exercises like the Talisman Sabre, Cope India, and the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA), the Indo-Pacific Logistics Network FTX for disaster relief are taken regularly.

DIVERGENT INDO-PACIFIC VISIONS WITHIN THE QUAD

While all the members agree on the broader goals, differences do exist. The Quad carries varied strategic meaning for its members, based on their immediate security concerns, national priorities and key principles driving their respective foreign policies.

The very definition of the Indo-Pacific is subject to varied interpretations. For the US, it extends from India's shores to the US West Coast, while for India, it covers Africa's east coast to the Americas' west coast, with the Indian Ocean as its central focus. 

THE UNITED STATES: QUAD AS A BALANCING COALITION

The then President Obama envisaged the "Pivot to Asia” policy, a major shift from its entanglement in conflicts in the Middle East to containing China's rise in the Indo- Pacific. The US mainly views the grouping as an effective platform to counter China, as Washington can no longer counter Beijing's military and infrastructural dominance alone.  

Its theoretical rhetoric targeting its adversaries, including the Axis of Evil, CRINK, and String of Pearls, garnered further attention to the Chinese activities in the region, including dual-use facilities like Gwadar in Pakistan, Matarbari in Bangladesh etc, the construction of artificial islands in Spratly and Paracel, active involvement in grey zone warfare etc. 

The recent Pentagon report on China to the US Congress accords significant importance to the region. The US has conducted 45 freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) since 2017 and 11 multilateral maritime cooperative activities (MMCAs) since 2024 with its allies, including Australia, Japan, Canada, the Philippines, and New Zealand, triggering strong military and diplomatic reactions from Beijing. The US views India as a crucial partner to counterbalance Beijing and positions New Delhi as a net security provider in the region.

JAPAN: FRONTLINE STATE IN THE EAST ASIAN COMPETITION

Japan, the pioneer of the QUAD, seeks active involvement of its partners in the region, given the intensity of tensions in East Asia and the South China Sea. China claims the uninhabited Senkaku Islands (which Beijing calls the Diaoyu Islands) and considers almost the entire South China Sea, up to the Nine-Dash Line, as the “Chinese lake”. It actively partners with Russia and North Korea in military exercises like Ocean-2024, Joint Sea 2025, and frequently engages in airspace violations in Japan and South Korea. 

Recent Chinese Wolf Warrior Diplomacy and aggressive military drills like the Justice Mission 2025 over the US’s recent $11 billion military aid to Taipei (the largest ever) and Japanese PM Takaichi's statement on Taiwan's security and the possibility of Japan's military intervention further escalated the tensions in the region. 

AUSTRALIA: SECURING THE SOUTH PACIFIC

Australia has similar concerns about Beijing’s growing footprint in Pacific Island states such as Tonga and Kiribati through loans, infrastructure projects, and strategic financing. 

China’s security pact with the Solomon Islands triggered a serious alarm in Canberra. Through the AUKUS pact, which provides Canberra with conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), Australia is seeking to reinforce the Anglo-American strategic presence in the region, thereby enabling wider European and trans-Atlantic engagement in Indo-Pacific security.

China sternly rejects the grouping and calls it “Asian NATO”, an effort to propagate the “Cold War mentality”, and condemns the FONOPs and military exercises as provocative and a “violation of China’s sovereignty”.

Beijing's aggressive posture creates a challenging environment in the region, especially for emerging and aspiring middle powers like India. Around 83% of India's energy imports and 90% of trade by volume and 70% by value pass through the region. 

Provocative activities of the Chinese coast guard, including the use of water cannons against Philippine fishing vessels and blocking manoeuvres near Sabina Shoal, impede the free flow of trade and raise tensions in key waterways.

INDIA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITIES AND STRATEGIC ENCIRCLEMENT

India, a crucial pillar in the QUAD, is troubled by hostile conditions in its neighbourhood with frequent terror incursions from Pakistan, political instability and human rights violations in Myanmar, civil unrest and growing anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh, tense borders between Afghanistan and Pakistan, economic disruptions in Nepal, Sri Lanka, etc., augmenting the risk of involvement of external powers.

Growing Chinese activities encircling India, including the docking of intelligence vessels like Yuan Wang-5, Shi Yan-6, Xiang Yang Hong-03, Lan Hai, etc., infrastructural projects in Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), etc., complicate India’s security environment in the Indian Ocean.

INDIA'S MARITIME COUNTER-STRATEGY

New Delhi envisaged the “Necklace of Diamonds” to counter these threats with ports and bases in Chabahar (Iran), Sabang (Indonesia), Duqm (Oman), Agalega Island (Mauritius), Sittwe Port (Myanmar) and Changi Naval Base (Singapore).

India aims to steer the QUAD grouping towards its primary goal of stable, democratic and inclusive architecture, aligning with its leading role in other initiatives in the region like BIMSTEC, MAHASAGAR, IONS, IORA, IPOI, etc. 

New Delhi aims to leverage its geoeconomic advantages in the region, earmarking several initiatives for greater economic engagement with projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transport Transit Project, the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) Trilateral Highway, etc, and is actively exploring polymetallic nodules (PMN) and sulphides (PMS) like nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese, gold, platinum in the Indian Ocean under the ISA's mandate, adhering to the UNCLOS.

India has also been attentive to concerns expressed by ASEAN regarding the possibility of the Indo-Pacific turning into a potential theatre of great-power rivalry, and Prime Minister Modi, in his address to the Shangri-La Dialogue, 2018, reiterated the principle of “ASEAN centrality” in India’s vision for a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. 

STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY IN THE US LEADERSHIP

Another challenge emanates from Washington's changing priorities. The recent US National Security Strategy gave rise to the new “Donroe doctrine”- Trump’s corollary to the Monroe doctrine, which has shifted the focus to the Western Hemisphere, calling for renewed US regional hegemony. 

The US's strategic ambiguity on the Taiwan question and its softening stance on Chinese activities pertaining to Japan to avoid Beijing's ire, pushed its allies into a geopolitical dilemma. Washington’s increasing transactionalism, seeking higher burden sharing by partners, is concerning. The US's attack on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicholas Maduro may encourage similar actions by Beijing in Taiwan. This may also encourage nuclear proliferation in the region as a more reliable safeguard for sovereignty, given the case of North Korea.

INSTITUTIONAL RESILIENCE OF THE QUAD

However, institutional mechanisms and working groups in areas like critical and emerging technologies, climate change, energy security, etc remain intact. 

To combat terrorism in the region, the Quad Counterterrorism Working Group (CTWG) collaborates to deepen cooperation on shared threats, including new and emerging forms of terrorism, radicalisation to violence, and violent extremism. The third such meeting was recently hosted by India in 2025.

The Quad Critical Minerals Initiative aims to secure supply chains of critical minerals, reducing dependence on a single source. The Quad Cancer Moonshot initiative aims at eliminating cervical cancer in the Indo-Pacific by boosting HPV vaccination, and the Quad STEM Scholarship Scheme aims to strengthen technological collaboration.

Initiatives like the Quad Tech Network (QTN) and the Quad Investors Network (QUIN) focus on critical and emerging technologies. To address challenges posed by climate change, the Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP) focuses on mitigation and adaptation efforts through green shipping corridors, clean hydrogen, etc.

The QUAD has major challenges to address and numerous opportunities to progress. New Delhi, in the upcoming summit, aims to work in this direction, focusing on navigating intensifying headwinds and strengthening its partnership in maritime security, counter-terrorism, and secure and stable SLOCs.

The grouping needs a permanent institutional mechanism with greater clarity in its definition, goals and purpose. Coordination with other groupings, like the I2U2 (India, Israel, the UAE, the US), can foster greater economic integration and multipolarity in the Indo-Pacific.

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BY HARSHITHA

COVERING MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS

TEAM GEOSTRATA

info@thegeostrata.com