Friends of India: How the Gulf Quietly Rejected Pakistan's Kashmir Calculus

For decades, Pakistan maintained its fundamental belief, which held that the Muslim Brotherhood of the Gulf would support Pakistan during any conflict with India over Kashmir. The financial connections to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha served as economic lifelines for Islamabad. The Gulf states functioned as moral protectors in Islamabad's strategic vision. The Gulf would support the ummah when the moment arrived. The moment arrived, but the Gulf states did not respond.

Illustration by The Geostrata

The three escalation cycles, including the events of 2019 and 2021 and the May 2025 Pahalgam-to-Sindoor spiral, demonstrate more than just diplomatic neutrality. The process involves slow and methodical destruction of a twenty-year geopolitical belief system that Pakistan has maintained since 1973. The Gulf states still maintain ties with Pakistan. The Gulf states have completely rejected Pakistan's Kashmir story as the basis for their diplomatic ties with India. The situation represents a separate development that affects people in important ways.

THE 2019 TEST AND WHAT IT REVEALED

The people of Pakistan used August 5, 2019, as their day to demand repayment of their financial obligations. The Indian government revoked Article 370 and took away Jammu and Kashmir's special constitutional rights, created a communication blackout, and arrested more than 1000 Kashmiri political leaders, journalists, and activists. The Gulf states should have shown their support for pan-Islamic unity in line with its fundamental principles.

The United Arab Emirates declared the situation to be an internal matter of India. The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, visited Islamabad to show support for Pakistan, but they did not make any strong statements against India. The visit appeared to be supporting the visit. The situation functioned as a display of diplomatic work.

The UAE presented Modi with the Order of Zayed award as the highest civilian honor during the lockdown period, which affected Indian-controlled Kashmir. The gesture showed its true meaning. India received recognition, while Pakistan expected India to face punishment. All Gulf states in the region, including Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, chose to stay silent and made no public statements. This event was advantageous for Pakistan. The official decision showed their conclusion.

THE ECONOMICS OF SILENCE

The answer to this question has existed since ancient times. Gulf states supply 40% of India's oil needs. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are India's third- and fourth-largest trading partners, respectively. The Indian diaspora in the Gulf, over 8 million strong, is the backbone of remittance economies from Kerala to Punjab.

Saudi Arabia currently hosts approximately 2.6 million Indians, alongside a similar number of Pakistanis. The Pahalgam attack occurred while Modi appeared in Jeddah to finalize the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and the $100 billion investment deal. India had become an essential economic partner for Gulf nations, as they engaged in $100 billion in annual trade with India.

Pakistan's leverage, by contrast, had been quietly eroding. Pakistan's relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE suffered from its failure to meet security obligations toward Gulf countries, which included its decision not to participate in the Saudi-led military mission against Yemen. Pakistan's neutrality during the Qatar blockade was similarly registered. Islamabad preferred meeting its internal political requirements rather than supporting the Gulf states. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi noticed and filed it.

Gulf nations developed a dislike for political Islam and violent Islamist organizations during the post-Cold War period because many of these groups operated from Pakistan. The Gulf states used to see Islamabad as an ideological ally; however, they now view it as a base for groups that disrupt regional peace.

2021: THE UAE BROKERS WHAT PAKISTAN COULD NOT

The 2021 ceasefire along the Line of Control, the longest-holding since 2003, was not the product of bilateral diplomacy between India and Pakistan. It was Gulf-brokered. In January 2021, Dubai hosted secret talks between Indian and Pakistani intelligence officials. UAE Ambassador to the US Yousef al-Otaiba confirmed these negotiations and argued that they played a key role in enforcing the ceasefire between the two South Asian rivals.

The irony is precise: Pakistan had to rely on a Gulf state that was simultaneously deepening its strategic partnership with India to hold back Indian military pressure on the Line of Control. The UAE's mediation was successful because of its unique personal and political ties on both sides. Pakistan was a beneficiary, not a principal. That ceasefire was held for four years, until Pahalgam.

MAY 2025: THE GULF STEPS INTO THE VACUUM

On the last two occasions that India and Pakistan clashed significantly over Kashmir, in 2016 and 2019, the US played a key role in de-escalating tensions. This time, the Trump administration took a hands-off approach, with Vice President Vance telling Fox News that the spat was "fundamentally none of our business."

Into that vacuum walked the Gulf. Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir paid back-to-back visits to both India and Pakistan, emphasizing the Kingdom's commitment to stability and balanced relations. The UAE and Qatar likewise engaged with both sides through diplomatic channels.

But note what "balanced" actually meant in practice. Rather than fanning the flames by backing fellow Islamic state Pakistan, Qatar, and the UAE both urged restraint. Doha even went so far as to back New Delhi in the spat, at least according to an Indian readout.

When PM Sharif met with the Saudi, UAE, and Kuwaiti ambassadors in Islamabad, those ambassadors thanked Sharif for sharing Pakistan's stance. They reaffirmed their support for maintaining regional peace and security. Regional peace and security, not Pakistan's Kashmir position. The distinction matters enormously. Pakistan was asking its Gulf partners to pressure India. What it got instead from Abu Dhabi was something closer to neutrality, a posture that reflected the Emirates' increasingly close economic and strategic ties with New Delhi.

THE FRACTURE IN PLAIN SIGHT

The UAE has been building relationships with India and Israel that explicitly exclude Pakistan from new regional architectures. Abu Dhabi is not punishing Islamabad so much as rearranging its priorities around partners whose interests more closely match its own.

India has strongly encouraged the UAE and Saudi Arabia to join BRICS, a bloc whose GDP exceeds that of the G7. In return, Saudi Arabia and the UAE may support India's efforts to secure either full membership or observer status within the OIC. That last detail is the most cutting: India may soon have a formal voice in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the very body Pakistan has historically used to internationalize the Kashmir issue.

Turkey and China remain Pakistan's reliable backers. Turkish President Erdogan expressed admiration for Pakistan's "calm and restrained policies" and backed Pakistan's push for an international investigation into the Pahalgam attack. Beijing backed Islamabad through diplomatic statements while Chinese J-10C jets provided the actual air defense. 

However, neither Ankara nor Beijing can offer Pakistan what the Gulf once promised: religious legitimacy, financial depth, and proximity to American strategic attention.

The Gulf has moved on. It still needs Pakistan for its diaspora workers, its nuclear deterrence umbrella, and its land route to Central Asia. Pakistan's nuclear assets remain a critical strategic option for Gulf nations. The relationship will not break. However, it will not be weaponized for Kashmir again.

WHAT THIS MEANS?

Pakistan built its Kashmir diplomacy on Islamic unity, which would function as a strengthening element that the Gulf's financial and political power would force India to negotiate with Pakistan on Pakistan's established terms. The strategy has reached its complete operational limits at this point.

The Cold War period used basic ideological divisions to decide international relationships. The countries of India and Pakistan, together with other nations, try to find solutions through which they can obtain benefits from each other. The Gulf states maintain their position on Kashmir even though they do not publicly express their support. The way states conduct themselves has changed because states now view India as their main ally, while they regard Pakistan's online grievances as unimportant. The last ten years have brought New Delhi a valuable achievement that operates in silence. The Gulf states established their silence as a standard because New Delhi became essential to their operations.

You achieve victory in a diplomatic debate through your actions when you refuse to participate in the discussion.

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BY HARJEET SINGH

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