Facing the Heat: India’s Neighbourhood Challenges Intensify

South Asia has been increasingly witnessing seismic shifts in the political front, with swift regime changes in almost all of India’s neighbourhood in recent years. Since 2021, a chain of events has left the region almost paralysed and in need of strategic fixes. Regional instability has borne concerns in New Delhi, as it is feared to bring in migrant challenges for the Indian leadership to deal with. 

Illustration by The Geostrata

Recent political turmoil in neighbouring nations, the resulting economic setbacks they face, and the expanding Chinese footprint have put India in a geopolitically sensitive position. Most recently, Bangladesh’s political crisis threatened to meddle with India’s trade, security and cross-border infrastructure projects.

Developments in Bangladesh and its deteriorating economic climate have also had implications for India’s economy.

Dhaka’s rapid growth in the past decade made it a top export destination for India’s goods. Concurrently, its behemoth textile industry gathered raw cotton from India, and constituted 35% of India’s global export of cotton. According to the National Organisation for the Textile Industry, any supply chain interruption in Bangladesh will therefore immediately impact Indian companies, causing production delays and shortages. 

However, Surat’s textile industry has harnessed the vacuum-induced potential, and is now emerging as an efficient alternative. With the interim government in Dhaka opting into the Pakistani sphere, more room has been created for jeopardisation of the Indo-Bangla bilateral relations. 

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Sri Lanka was knee deep in rough waters following severe financial mismanagement and debt defaults. Consequently, India has been battling the infiltration of Sri Lankan citizens from the southern coast who move with the hope of finding a better life in India. The arrival of approximately two thousand economic refugees had been recorded following the 2021 economic crisis.

To cater to their necessities, New Delhi provided a financial aid of $3.5 billion to Sri Lanka and had also allocated 80 crore in 2021-22 for welfare schemes targeting Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in camps alongside other amenities such as cash assistance, subsidised rice, free clothes among others, amounting to a total value of 4 Billion USD in just 2022. The scale of humanitarian aid and financial assistance exerted pressure on India’s budget, especially as the nation was in the midst of recovering from pandemic fatigue.

India also had to fight the growing influence of China in the Indian Ocean, with the Chinese ownership of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port igniting anxiety at home in India.

Since the 2021 coup in Myanmar, ethnic armed groups, including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Arakan Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army, formed the Brotherhood alliance to challenge Myanmar’s military. Their attacks on military outposts have forced soldiers into India, while retaliatory strikes by Myanmar's military are pushing rebels and civilians across the border, posing a growing security threat.

Furthermore, the border with Myanmar has been used to smuggle weapons into India’s North-East, while the narcotics trade has been funding these insurgent groups. The influx of refugees has also created major friction between the ethnic groups in the region.

Myanmar’s instability has also brought massive losses to India, as New Delhi’s investments in alternative trade routes via Myanmar, like the Kaladan project and the Trilateral Highway, have been significantly compromised. Due to the many ethnic revolutions, the balkanisation of the country can be a likely future event. 

Nepal, in its tryst to achieve democracy has succumbed to fragility in governance, and it is evident that the country would require more time to mature. The stability of its financial systems can be compromised if focus isn't channelled into addressing its weaknesses. The Financial Action Task Force has noted critical shortcomings in the nation’s compliance towards the fight against money laundering and terrorist financing.

After India’s short-lived 2015 trade blockade, Kathmandu has focused on deepening its partnership with China; its recent decision to join the controversial Belt and Road Initiative is a testament to its rapidly progressing relations.

The open border that the two nations share has also been a point of contention. Communist parties in Nepal are also seen to have fraternal ties with the Chinese polity.  Nepal is therefore under close scrutiny for playing the ‘China card’ in more than one sphere. However, it is also important to observe that Indo-Nepal ties are rooted in shared history and culture, putting New Delhi in a unique position to amp up its strategy. 

The tumultuous economic landscape in Pakistan has consistently posed serious challenges to India’s security, with extremist groups exploiting unrest to escalate tensions. Diplomatically, though, it provides India an opportunity to highlight Islamabad’s governance deficiency in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.

The decline in trade with PoK adversely affects some local economies, especially in the areas of Kashmir along the Line of Control (LoC). Initiated in 2008, the trade had cumulatively generated approximately 170,000 labour days and freight worth about $88 million until 2019.

Additionally, as Pakistan actively seeks international assistance to overcome its economic crisis, India needs to ensure that the funds obtained by Pakistan aren't misappropriated to escalate regional friction through terrorism. 

Since 2021, a storm of radicalism, extremism and narco-trafficking has been unleashed in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ascent to the political throne in Kabul has caused continuous troubles for India.

Despite the Taliban’s initial assurance of adherence to international expectations not to promote terrorism on its soil, a May 2022 letter by the Chair of the Security Council Committee Established under Resolution 1988 (2011) addressed to the President of the UN Security Council underscored the breaches. Taliban’s link with Al-Qaeda is viewed to have deepened over the years, and can likely generate a ripple effect in the region.

The passport directorate in Kabul was reportedly controlled by the Haqqani network, stirring unease in India over its security interests.  Despite the deterioration seen in Afghanistan, recent high-level bilaterals shed light on New Delhi’s newfound determination to boost trade and expand transit routes to Central Asia via Afghanistan. Furthermore, the Indian government has time and again expressed deep concern about the plight of women under their Islamic theocratic rule, urging reforms. 

INDIA'S 5S APPROACH IN ACTION

India is walking a tightrope as it navigates through the challenges posed by the volatility in its neighbourhood.

New Delhi has adopted the ‘5S’ principle approach to mitigate the predicaments in the way forward. 

The approach characterised by Samman (respect), Samvad (dialogue), Shanti (peace), Sahyog (cooperation), and Samriddhi (prosperity) can be an indispensable tool to infuse dynamism in its efforts to restore and eventually consolidate peace and security in the region. Despite tumultuousness, India has embraced this approach, as evident in initiatives like the Ganges Water Treaty with Bangladesh, exemplifying mutual respect.

Furthermore, we have also contributed to regional peace-keeping missions in Sri Lanka and Nepal; and have been ardent proponents of economic integration through mechanisms such as BBIN and India-ASEAN FTA. Ultimately, India’s steadfast commitment to fostering peace and brotherhood in her neighbourhood remains vital to overcoming regional complexities. 

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BY NAKSHATRA

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