Pakistan’s Sea Based Nuclear Ambitions: It’s Quest To Acquire Nuclear Submarines

Recently leaked Pakistani military reports revealed some shocking facts. As per the reports, Pakistan is seeking to fulfil its dream of building nuclear missiles beneath the sea as well as building nuclear submarines and requested China’s assistance in 2024, which China outright rejected. To entice China, Pakistan offered it extensive access to its Gwadar port, but China still refused.

Illustration by The Geostrata

This move by China clearly shows that, regardless of being allies with Pakistan, China refuses to be part of the dangerous nuclear game being played by Pakistan in an already volatile South Asia.

Nations such as the U.S., Russia, China, India, France, and Britain possess these nuclear-powered submarines, with the primary goal being to keep them as a mere deterrence option in the face of an existential threat, but in the case of Pakistan, the reasons are completely different. Analysts state that the main ambition of Pakistan to develop or procure these weapons is because its rival, India, possesses this capability.

PAKISTAN’S AMBITIONS

Pakistan’s sea-based nuclear ambitions are not something that have arisen recently; these ambitions can be traced back many years. During 2017, Pakistan test-fired its cruise missile called Babur-3, which could be launched from underwater. Irrespective of having a nuclear-capable submarine to fire this missile, this test launch itself was a signal. Pakistan has also established a Naval Force Command for handling the development of sea-based weapons.

Pakistan currently has a variety of submarines, which consist of a range of diesel-electric submarines, including the older French Agosta-class ones. Pakistan is also getting new Hangor-class submarines from China. All these submarines are non-nuclear-capable submarines, but Pakistan has made dangerous claims, such as exploring ways to arm these submarines with nuclear missiles and making them capable of launching nuclear strikes if needed. Pakistan, which currently has the capability to launch nuclear strikes from land and air, aims to add naval capabilities for launching nuclear strikes. This would be something that would help their insecurities with regard to India.

IMPLICATIONS

The acquisition of nuclear submarines by Pakistan would have major implications. Pakistan which today houses major terror bases, could use nuclear submarines as a tool for blackmailing other nations. An example being, Pakistan instigating terrorist attacks on Indian soil and using nuclear submarines as a tool of blackmail to pressurize India not to strike back. In a period of time where international law and order have gone for a toss, the risks of major confrontation are high.

India, too, would look to expand its arsenal of nuclear submarines by speeding things up and investing more money in its underwater sea weapons, which would risk triggering an arms race in South Asia. The Indian Ocean could turn into a major battlefield waiting to explode in case of any minor incident. 

The falling of such dangerous weapons into the hands of Pakistan, a nation that has a failing economy and looks to invest money mostly funding terror groups and its military ambitions rather than its public, could look to instigate India even more. For India, another major concern would be China, which would possibly gain from the naval access it would be provided by Pakistan. 

Nuclear weapons underwater are something that is far more dangerous than one can imagine. The inability to look at or easily watch the movements beneath deep water always causes fear and anxiety amongst leaders in any nation. Any miscalculation by any one nation could lead to catastrophic outcomes.

For India, which has no trust in Pakistan and has had a bitter history with Pakistan due to its funding of terrorism, the chances of escalation would be extremely high in any major conflict, especially one in which the battle involves naval military forces. The pressure to strike first or the fear of any pre-emptive strikes by the enemy are a few dangerous factors. 

KEEPING PAKISTAN UNDER THE LENS

In conclusion, it can be stated that even though China, which supports Pakistan by providing it with defense supplies such as jets, missiles, etc., knows that providing Pakistan with nuclear submarines would be a step too far, which would lead to making things more tense in an already volatile region.

Even though Pakistan would not get the support it wants concerning this from China, in no way does it mean that Pakistan would close off its ambition of gaining underwater nuclear weapons.

Though China would not directly supply Pakistan with nuclear submarines there is always the chance that it aids Pakistan in developing these submarines themselves by providing it with critical information and guidance.

Acquiring nuclear submarines is always preferable by nations as it involves directly getting ready made submarines with nuclear capabilities and helps save time unlike that which would be required on local production. It also reduces chances of failure in designing which is caused by dependence on local technology and capabilities.

It also makes it easier to get spare parts whenever required from the supplier on a regular basis. Irrespective of this there is a major backlash that nations providing nuclear submarines could face, due to the violation of nuclear proliferation. This could lead to sanctions being imposed on the supporting nation.

Through the leaked facts, it is important that India undertake communication with China and convince them about the risks that would arise if Pakistan develops nuclear submarines or underwater nuclear missiles, while at the same time it is very important for India to keep a close eye on its neighbor so that it remains well updated on the mischievous ambitions of Pakistan. What's also important is for India to undertake dialogue and communication with other major nations that could pressurize Pakistan not to undertake its dangerous ambitions. 

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BY BHAVSAHIB

TEAM GEOSTRATA

info@thegeostrata.com