Narco-State Nexus: A Report

Poppy cultivation in Pakistan has been a long-standing issue, intensely for decades. Yet, its involvement in the modern international drug trade began only in the 1970s. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 transformed Pakistan into a critical processor and transit corridor for narcotics.

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Although narcotics did not initiate the conflict in Afghanistan, the drug trade has both sustained and been sustained by the ongoing violence. This trade has strengthened the capacity of the insurgents and has evolved into a state-sponsored instrument of asymmetric warfare and revenue generation.

Understanding terrorism in South Asia requires more than a political or ideological analysis; a deeper examination shows that narcotics are deeply intertwined with the economy of terrorism, transforming the drug trade into a war economy. This report explores the development of the narco-state nexus in this region, focusing on its cross-border impact on India, especially in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), where terror outfits have systematically exploited the narcotics trade as a crucial financial pillar for their operations.

The report further assesses India’s counterterrorism measures and the implications of narco-terrorism on the security and socio-political stability of India, the region, and beyond.

HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF THE NARCO-NETWORK

A. Birth of the Heroin Economy

Opium has long been grown in parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan for local use, but the international demand, especially for refining it into heroin, began in the 1970s. The Afghan-Soviet War and decreased opium production in post-revolution Iran precipitated supply gaps that were soon filled by drug producers in Afghanistan, making it the new hub of the ‘Asian Drug Trade’. Opium Production, estimated at 100 tons in 1971, suddenly increased during the Afghan war, reaching 2000 tons by 1991, which doubled to 4600 tons by the end of the decade.

By the mid-1980s, Afghanistan produced one-third of the world's opium. As the Afghan war intensified, drug expansion stood in direct connection with war-related events. Profits earned from the selling of drugs brought additional money to bankroll the Mujahideen struggle against the Soviets, shifting the trajectory from a drug economy to a ‘war economy’.

The drug trade started to gain momentum following the Soviet withdrawal, as lawlessness allowed illicit industries to flourish. The Taliban initially supported the poppy trade as a source of revenue, but imposed a crackdown in 2000. However, after the 2001 U.S. invasion, heroin production expanded, and by 2009, Afghanistan supplied an estimated 90% of the world's heroin.

With the Taliban 2.0 coming back to power in Afghanistan, the regime has once again imposed a ban on opium cultivation in 2022. Following this ban, the production in Afghanistan plunged by 95% by 2023, causing the re-emergence of poppy cultivation in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) after a significant migration of Afghan opium farmers to Pakistan.

Two small areas in Balochistan alone contain more than 8,000 hectares of farms. Some fields stretch beyond five hectares, expanding at a stunning pace. This scale of cultivation goes beyond anything Afghanistan has witnessed, making Pakistan the world’s new opium capital, dethroning Afghanistan.

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For all official and academic purposes, use the following as a citation, which follows the Chicago Manual Style.

Garima Arora and Tanu Nagar

“Narco-State Nexus”

THE GEOSTRATA, December 18, 2025.

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BY GARIMA ARORA AND TANU NAGAR

CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

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