Guardians of the Asia-Pacific?

In 1989, American political scientist Francis Fukuyama famously wrote in his essay “The End of History?” that liberal democracy triumphed over all other ideologies, and that this spread of liberal governance and free-market capitalism is a “pinnacle” of sorts; emphasising that there will be no more challenges to the liberal, democratic order. 

Illustration by The Geostrata

However, Fukuyama’s thesis was soon debunked as China, an authoritarian state, rapidly grew just in a span of a few decades to become the biggest challenge to the liberal order, even capable of creating an alternative world order.

This is now seen in full effect with China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea. The South China Sea in its entirety is being claimed by China under the historic and controversial “Nine-Dash Line”, overlapping with the territorial waters of several countries in the region such as Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

China has been using a wide range of tactics to deter any nation from interfering in their claims, from constructing artificial islands to installing military bases on them, while constantly intimidating smaller opponents by harassing foreign fishing vessels using China’s Coast Guard. Despite the “Nine-Dash Line” having no recognition of legal validity in the international community, China has continued its activities in the region, in the process undermining the very same institutions that the US created in their effort to create a liberal, democratic order.

The Asia-Pacific region, for these very reasons, has now become a very important region for the US, as it serves as a potential battleground between the two sides. Recognising the challenges that China poses, the US is now increasingly invested in building what we can call a “Democratic Arc” in order to counter China’s growing dominance in the region.

This strategy involves establishing alliances with democratic nations present in the region while enforcing the balance of power favouring democratic governance and shunning authoritarianism. This article will try to delve deeper into this concept of a “Democratic Arc”, explaining its necessity and how it can be implemented. 

WHY IS THE ASIA-PACIFIC SO IMPORTANT?

The Asia Pacific is perhaps the most important region in the world, solely due to its immense significance to the broader implications it has on geopolitics and International Relations all over the world.

For starters, the Asia Pacific is an economic powerhouse, with China, Japan, and South Korea being one of the largest economies in the world and countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia being the fastest-growing economies in the world. 

These countries also have a fast-growing consumer market, contributing significantly to the global GDP. Thus, all the economic activities that occur in the Asia-Pacific have great consequences for global trade and investment.

In particular, the South China Sea is one of the busiest maritime routes in the world, with about $5.3 trillion worth of trade going through the route, as per data in 2022. These routes are very important for the transportation of raw materials, goods, and energy supplies. 

When we think about the geopolitical aspect, the US and China have engaged in a very intense strategic competition in the area.

For many years, the US has been a dominant figure, with its network of alliances keeping peace in the region. However, with China’s new-found claims in the region becoming a real threat, it has become more crucial for the US to preserve these alliances and further build new ones in order to ensure regional stability while also preserving the liberal order in the region.

Moreover, China has been modernising and strengthening its military, which also means that the flexing of power will be in full effect in the Asia Pacific. It is no secret that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) have substantially expanded, thus giving them the ability to project their power and influence in the region. It should be noted here that China has been rapidly developing anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD capabilities) to prevent the US from exercising its freedom of navigation in the region. It is certainly a shrewd, yet smart move.

THE URGENT NECESSITY OF A DEMOCRATIC ARC

Building a Democratic Arc in the Asia-Pacific has become really important to the US due to a multitude of factors.

The first factor is authoritarianism. Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the US enjoyed unchallenged, unchecked dominance for a decade, promoting a liberal order that has prominence to capitalism, free market, and human rights. This was the “End of History” that Fukuyama posited.

However, this is now being heavily challenged by China’s authoritarian model, which involves centralised political and economic control while emphasising the non-negotiability of the international community interfering in a nation’s internal affairs, which involves basic freedoms and human rights as well.

Actions such as the human rights abuses in Xinjiang and the brutal suppression of protests in Hong Kong simply show that China, now a powerful state, does not intend to follow the norms that go against the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) interests.

This non-compliance now threatens to destabilise security in the Asia-Pacific while also severely tipping the balance of power, which brings us to the second factor: regional security.

The Asia-Pacific now is home to the two most important yet dangerous flashpoints in the world - The South China Sea and Taiwan. With China employing a range of intimidation tactics as mentioned in the introductory section, the US has come to realise how an alliance of democracies can help deter this aggression and intimidation to further stabilise the balance of power. 

The alliance can prove to act as a “counterbalance” to China’s behaviours in the Asia-Pacific, also further asserting that the challenge to a liberal order would be met with consequences.

The third factor pertains to economics.

Democracies have transparent economic systems and policies that have been approved by the public and further promote capitalism and the free market.

This also means that building a democratic arc to keep the democratic alliance together will help create a stable and predictable economic environment, which makes these countries more investor-friendly. Democratic countries can work together for mutual benefit to create an environment that helps improve trade and investment opportunities and cooperation.

HOW CAN THE DEMOCRATIC ARC BE IMPLEMENTED?

The previous section illustrated how important forming a democratic alliance in the Asia-Pacific is for deterring China’s aggression and preventing the encroachment of China’s authoritarian system in Asia-Pacific geopolitics.

Naturally, the first course of action to build this democratic arc is to deepen its already existing alliances with democratic countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

While these bilateral relationships have been strong since their inception, keeping them as strong as possible will have to be one of the US priorities: when everything else breaks, this alliance holds still in its resistance. For example, it is imperative for the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) to become a formal alliance, with a clear agenda, maintain regular contact with each other, and most importantly coordinate their policies to keep the status quo intact.

The next step involves creating the next layer of resistance through expanding their network to other democracies in the region, such as Indonesia and Malaysia. While the US and the Philippines have the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) which states that both nations will be required to support each other in the event that either nation is attacked, it is imperative that the US must make a similar, if not identical commitment to upholding the status quo in the region and come to their aid when it is disrupted. Additionally, the US can engage with these countries by supporting economic growth and democratic reforms.

A fundamental difference between the liberal order of the US and China’s authoritarian order is the case of human rights. The US will need to take into account the importance of upholding human rights, without being hypocritical about it. This could include upholding the right to free and fair elections, calling for political reforms, and most importantly, condemning human rights abuses irrespective of their interests. Legal measures like the Global Magnitsky Act, which gives the US the power to sanction any foreign official involved in human rights abuses, can be used to punish those responsible.

INDIA’S ROLE IN THE DEMOCRATIC ARC

As the world’s largest democracy, it would be remiss for the US to not consider India if they look to implement a democratic arc in the Asia-Pacific successfully. As a major economic and military power, coupled with its proximity to China, India can be a major strength of the US’ efforts. But how is that?

First, India’s location and its involvement in the Asia-Pacific make them a very important partner in upholding regional security in the region.

By taking part in joint military exercises such as the Malabar Exercise, India can improve cooperation and synergy with other democratic nations present in the region.

Additionally, India’s naval capabilities also mean that China’s A2/AD capabilities will be constantly checked by India’s vigilance, which can benefit the US in pursuing their freedom of navigation activities in the South China Sea.

Second, India’s growing economy and consumer market opens up a huge set of opportunities to pursue economic collaboration between Southeast Asia and India. Trade agreements between them can help reduce their dependence on China. Moreover, India’s involvement in initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) can help build and eventually solidify these economic ties.

However, it must also be noted that the US will need to choose its words carefully with India if they need to make this entente work. The US must accept and respect India’s autonomy in foreign relations and their historical ties with Russia. This means that the US must make no effort to influence or call for change in India’s foreign policy and their security interests. The US’ requests must be in line with India’s existing relationships, but should not force India to strictly pick a side.

CHALLENGES?

Establishing a democratic arc in itself sounds like an ambitious initiative, but that is because it is. Democratic nations in the Asia-Pacific, while sharing the same vision to counter China, have varied interests in priorities, in line with what the people need at this point in time. This makes coordination on agreements and preparing for collective action very difficult, thus threatening to fragment the alliance. 

To achieve a common ground and implement such collective action, the US and their allies require time to conduct patient diplomacy, in order for them to build their consensus on small-scale initiatives, gradually broadening their scope over time. Unfortunately, time is the only resource that the alliance lacks.

Most of the Southeast Asian countries are also economically dependent on China, thanks to China’s rampant exports worldwide. Pulling away from China would almost guarantee economic problems for these countries, and the US will not be able to mitigate the damage together. It is here where India’s involvement will be very necessary, in order to provide an alternative to cheap Chinese products.

Democratic backsliding in the region is also becoming a growing issue. Countries like Indonesia and Malaysia have been steering away from their democratic values over the past few years, which will certainly work in China’s benefit.

The US will need to amp up its support for promoting governance reforms while upholding the freedom to free and fair elections (as elicited in previous sections) in order to ensure that these democracies stay put and do not veer further into authoritarianism.

Finally, there is a significant challenge on the US’ behalf as well, which would be Donald Trump’s ascent to the US presidency. As his previous term illustrated in detail, his administration’s "America First” rhetoric has meant that countries dependent on the US for protection will be forced to fend for themselves if Trump comes back to power again, which will prove to be disastrous news for the Asia-Pacific and the democratic arc.

Additionally, Trump’s sketchy stance on human rights violations (domestic and international) and his praise for authoritarian leaders such as Putin and Kim Jong Un, not to mention his blatant disregard of democracy in general, certainly will weaken the US authority to promote democracy anywhere, including the Asia-Pacific. 

The establishment of a democratic arc is a testament to the fact that history is far from reaching its end. At this moment of time, China has the edge in the Asia-Pacific, which has resulted in the creation of this democratic arc. However, there remains a very solid foundation upon which to build.

The liberal order won a long war against the Soviet-led communist order because the appeal of democratic governance and a better standard of living trumped views of socialism. By pursuing the same values and enhancing cooperation among democracies, the US is now presented with another opportunity to defeat a challenge to the existing order, perhaps even making Fukuyama’s vision of no more challenges to the US-led liberal order eventually come true.

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BY ABHINAV POLUDASU

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