Europe's Grand Strategy Post Russia-Ukraine War: From Contention to Confidence

The Ukraine conflict has had a profound effect on European Geopolitics. It has strained relations between Russia and Western countries, leading to sanctions and an increased military presence in Eastern Europe. The conflict has also tested the unity of NATO and the EU, raising concerns about territorial integrity, humanitarian crises and refugee flow.

Illustration by The Geostrata

This underscores the urgent need for Europe to craft a cohesive grand strategy that can effectively address complex global challenges and maintain unity among member states.

Liddell Hart, who was a British soldier, military historian, and military theorist, defined ‘Grand Strategy’ as, “to coordinate and direct all the resources of a nation, or band of nations, towards the attainment of the political object … the goal defined by the fundamental policy.” Their grand strategy should focus on three main goals: Strengthening economies, boosting defence and protecting the environment for a safer future.

STRENGTHENING NATO AND EUROPEAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has been instrumental in guarding European security since the end of the Cold War.

After the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, the organisation decided to commit 2% of GDP and with the full onslaught of the war in Ukraine, the members of the organisation have decided to increase their spending on military equipment and technology.

Here, about one-fifth of expenditure is directed towards spending on major military equipment like ammunition and anti-tank missiles. Furthermore, the focus is on the research and the development of new defence equipment.

The year 2023 saw NATO tapping this exact opportunity and investing about 2.4 Billion Euros through the Land Battle Decisive Munitions framework that saw NATO Support and Procurement Agency invest with KNDS France to obtain 155 mm artillery ammunition, anti-tank guided missiles and key battle tank ammunition for Leopard 2 tanks. All this allows NATO to be better equipped on the ground to face a potential armed conflict.

From the perspective of aerial combat, Sweden's entry into the alliance has greatly benefited the maintenance of security systems in the Baltic, Nordic, and Arctic arenas. Sweden, alongside the French and the British, possesses technologically advanced aircraft.

This is in the form of the Swedish indigenous Gripen aircraft that would help in providing situational awareness during combat due to its state-of-the-art active electronically scanned array that helps detect and engage multiple targets, which are at a greater distance. With the additional advantage of lower operating and maintenance costs, this aircraft could allow the monitoring of weaknesses in the region.

Weaknesses such as the Suwalki Gap and Kaliningrad oblast are where Russians have their Baltic base - Nuclear power attack, guided and ballistic missile submarines are present there. This threat has been addressed through joint exercises that have been conducted.

A key example is the Steadfast Defender, which took place in May 2024 and involved around 90,000 troops and sub-exercises such as Brilliant Jump, Joint Warrior and Nordic Response. These exercises aim to transport troops and other essential resources that could be brought to the front lines and provide NATO armies with a better response to Russian aggression.

Their secondary aims could also be to preserve the European values within the continent; to preserve democracy, human rights and liberal values. In its pursuit of cultivating a grand strategy, the continent must also look at enhancing its defence industry and cultivating R&D on new weaponry systems. It must also try to strengthen its economy and expand its sphere of influence to newer markets while adapting to economic shocks.

EUROPE UNBOUND: PIVOTING POWER, FUELING FUTURE

With the Russia-Ukraine Conflict steamrolling into its third year, Europe has been able to strategically decouple from Russian oil and gas energy sources. The European Union has tapped into resources from Azerbaijan and found potential reserves off the coast of Cyprus and Qatar. 

In 2023, Azerbaijan supplied about 11.6 billion cubic tonnes of gas to Europe.

Furthermore, through the discovery of gases in the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone, European companies such as TotalEnergies and Eni, as well as French and Italian companies, have secured access to these resources, which will be sent to Europe to maintain supply in response to demand.

Europe should also strive to enhance industries that are essential to its economy. For example, in Germany and France, they can be car manufacturing and electronics to name a few. Being the economic powerhouses of the European Union, they should create incentives and policies that attract employment and enhance economic growth. 

These industries could be enhanced through increased investment that would be done through structural funding. To help transition into a green economy, the criteria of meeting environmental regulations and maintaining a certain percentage of the workforce will protect the world and regulate economic growth equitably.

Furthermore, it should also enhance global economic investments that will strategise global reach and competitiveness. They have engaged in projects all around the world through the European Investment Bank (EIB) - this helped the EU establish projects in the remotest parts of the world.

In 2023, Sub-Saharan Africa alone got investments of up to 2.5 Billion Euros. Malawi is a case where the development through investment from the EIB has helped the country’s major highway, M1, about 300 km of the road was financed by the bank, which has assisted the Malawian economy and also connected it to the major Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam.

Therefore, these investments do have significant contributions to individual economies, and if strategised well, can have good implications for the world. Diversification of energy sources, strengthening of important industries, and increasing foreign investments will surely help create an economically resilient Europe.

This is thus a comprehensive attitude of both hardening the stance at home and reaching out abroad, therefore empowering Europe to stay competitive within a world geography marked by increasingly complex dynamics, while promoting global sustainable development.

ENVIRONMENTAL STRATEGY

The EU’s sustainable development strategy, initiated in 2001 and renewed in 2006, aims to enhance the quality of life for present and future generations. It's a big part of the EU’s goal since the Treaty of Amsterdam in 1999. 

The strategy, born out of the Gothenburg European Council in 2001, complements the Lisbon Strategy, which was aimed at making the EU the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy by 2010 focusing on employment, economic reforms and sustainable development, by integrating environmental goals and promoting sustainable decision-making across sectors, uniting business, social, and environmental policymakers.

In September 2023, the European Parliament supported a target for 42.5% of energy from renewables and set goals to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases it produces by at least 55% by 2030. 

This goal is a part of the EU’s REPowerEU plan, launched in May 2022, which focuses on speeding up the shift to clean energy and reducing dependence on energy imports, especially from Russia. Sweden leads the EU in using renewable energy, with 66% in 2022, mainly from hydro, wind, biofuel, and heat pumps. Finlands follows with 47.9% while Latvia is next at 43.3%. Between 2021 and 2027, the EU plans to spend 32.6% of its total budget, which amounts to € 578 billion, on efforts to combat climate change.

Additionally, the EU is starting its first-ever auction to support the production of renewable hydrogen, with € 800 million from the innovation fund set aside for this initiative. The EU has a plan to become the first climate-neutral continent, meaning they won’t produce more greenhouse gases than our environment can naturally absorb. This green deal in Europe is good for the planet and will also help produce jobs and ensure a better future for everyone.

The European grand strategy encompasses a tricolour banner that combines military power, economic alchemy, and green innovation. The bastion of NATO evolves, and the economic dependence of the European Union detaches itself from the clutches of Moscow. The green crusade of the continent does inscribe a picture of power for tomorrow. In this intricate dance of swords, sovereigns, and sustainability, Europe looks set to choreograph its ascendancy on the world stage.

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BY JYOTIKA AND SANJAY

TEAM GEOSTRATA

info@thegeostrata.com