Energy Security in a Conflict-Prone World: Can Nations Ever Be Self-Sufficient?

Yet another potential source of disruption to the global energy market, and perhaps one less tied to the Russia–Ukraine war, has arisen in the Middle East. As Iran blocks traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which nearly 20 million barrels per day (mb/d), one-fifth of the world's oil supply, passes, raising the likelihood of yet another global energy crisis. Recent escalations involving Iran, Israel, and U.S. naval deployments in 2025–26 have already driven Brent crude volatility above $90 per barrel in short bursts.

Illustration by The Geostrata

These crises illustrate a more fundamental truth: in the global economy, countries far from the battlefields of a conflict can feel the economic impacts thousands of miles away. As conflicts increasingly target energy routes and supply chains- from pipeline sabotage in Eastern Europe to drone strikes on oil infrastructure in the Gulf- policymakers no longer ask if such disruptions will happen but rather how they can ensure secure energy supplies in a volatile geopolitical environment.

In a world where energy supply is becoming more geopolitically determined than market-determined, the question is not if, but how well prepared are the nations to withstand energy crises? 

ENERGY SECURITY IN AN ERA OF OVERLAPPING CONFLICTS

Energy security has traditionally been a core issue of national policy, but recent developments show the increasing overlap between energy security and geopolitics. As the Russia–Ukraine war enters its fourth year, it serves as a stark reminder of how quickly energy can become a strategic tool in international conflicts.

European economies reliant on Russian natural gas were hit by supply shortages and price volatility as sanctions and pipeline disruptions took hold.

The crisis prompted many countries to frantically seek alternative sources of supply, illustrating how overreliance on a single source of energy can prove to be dangerously fragile.

While the effects of the Russia–Ukraine war continue to reverberate through global energy

markets, emerging tensions in the Middle East add another layer of uncertainty. The region remains a key source of global oil production and transportation, with the Strait of Hormuz being one of the world's most significant maritime energy chokepoints: any disruption to shipping through this narrow waterway would have immediate and long-term effects on global oil supply and prices.

The possibility of such disruptions demonstrates that energy crises are no longer isolated or temporary events. Instead, it is a structural aspect of a global order characterised by geopolitical competition and strategic contestation, and as such, governments must begin to consider not only short-term supply management but also long-term planning to ensure energy security. 

HOW WARS AFFECT NON-BELLIGERENT ECONOMIES?

The modern energy crisis is characterised by its impact on non-combatant countries, which can be thousands of miles away from the front lines. As energy markets become increasingly globalised, disruptions in one part of the world can quickly transmit to another, causing severe economic consequences to nations that are not even directly involved in the war.

Middle Eastern tensions affect the global economy: the Strait of Hormuz carries 20 percent of world oil shipments, and it is also an important passage for Qatar’s LNG exports.

The impact of any threat amplifies when supply is concentrated through a single channel.

Every $ 10-per-barrel increase in crude prices raises inflation and widens the current account deficit by ~0.3–0.5 percentage points of India’s GDP growth. Higher oil prices mean higher transportation costs, higher electricity charges, and greater inflationary pressures in national economies.

In addition to price volatility, conflicts also impact energy markets by raising insurance premiums for shipping, halting maritime logistics, and jeopardising long-term supply contracts, all of which can place fiscal strains on developing economies like India and undermine economic growth, making these crises truly global events in which even non-combatant nations have significant economic risks.

SELF-SUFFICIENCY OR RESILIENCE? RETHINKING ENERGY SECURITY

As a result of these repeated energy shocks, the idea that countries could become energy self-sufficient has risen to the top of the policy debate; however, global interdependence remains unprecedented. At least at first glance, it would be preferable if each country could generate all the energy it consumes domestically so that no nation would be subject to geopolitical disruptions or supply shocks. But in practice, no country can hope to be completely energy self-sufficient.

Energy resources are unevenly distributed across the globe. Modern economies need different types of energy, including fossil fuels (which account for over 80% of global primary energy consumption), renewables, nuclear power, and new sources such as hydrogen.

Countries have different reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal, and creating the infrastructure to produce all these types of energy would be a massive financial and technological undertaking.

Even high-income countries with advanced technologies still rely on imported energy; for instance, Japan and South Korea import a large share of their fossil fuels because they do not have many domestic resources, whereas many European countries continue to rely on energy imports despite efforts to increase renewable capacity. For these reasons, energy policy seeks to limit reliance on any one supplier by diversifying sources, investing in alternative energy technologies, and storing reserves to buffer short-term disruptions.

INDIA'S STRATEGY: BUILDING ENERGY RESILIENCE

This paradigm shift can be seen in India's approach to energy security. As one of the world’s major economies with the fastest-growing energy demand as a result of industrialisation, urbanisation, and increased infrastructure development, having over 85 percent import dependence on fossil fuels, especially crude oil, it has diversified its crude imports, relying significantly on Russian crude to meet its energy demands to build energy resilience in the country as it transitions to cleaner and more sustainable sources of power.

India has also diversified its energy partnerships to mitigate the risk of overdependence on any one supplier in the region. A key development in this regard is the civil nuclear cooperation with Canada, through uranium supply agreements with Cameco, which provide India with long-term uranium supplies for its nuclear reactors, insulating India from vulnerability to fossil fuel disruptions.

The second is the creation of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), which now stores around 5.3 million metric tonnes and has expansion plans to store even more crude oil, which can be tapped in the event of a supply disruption or price spike to minimize the short-term economic impact of global energy shocks.

Concurrently, India is heavily investing in renewables, with a target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and already exceeding the installed capacity of 180 GW in 2025, and the National Green Hydrogen Mission to place India at the forefront of emerging clean energy technologies.

Last but not least, energy diplomacy is a core aspect of India's strategy, as it deepens ties with various energy-producing regions and engages in international energy partnerships to maintain access to global energy markets in an increasingly geopolitically uncertain world.

CONCLUSION

As the tensions flare in the Middle East, demonstrating the geopolitics at play in global energy markets, the goal of absolute energy self-sufficiency may be elusive for most countries in such an environment, and what is needed instead is the capacity to create robust and diverse energy systems that can withstand the shocks of an ever-more-volatile world. In an era where energy is increasingly shaped by geopolitics, the pursuit of absolute self-sufficiency may be impossible, but the ability to create robust and diversified energy systems is no longer a luxury.

---

BY PRIYANKA YADAV

TEAM GEOSTRATA

info@thegeostrata.com