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“You can change your friends but not your neighbours,” quoted by former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee, is a truism in international relations. Upon the same realisation, India’s determination turned towards a peaceful and stable South and Southeast Asian nation based on the principles of sovereignty and mutual respect.
Illustration by The Geostrata
The re-election of the world’s largest democracy is poised to usher in the return of PM Modi for an unparalleled third term. A highly anticipated presence of South Asian leaders for the swearing-in ceremony of the new Indian government attests that a politically strong India is advantageous for climbing up the global hierarchy of South Asia and Southeast Asia. Albeit with some shortcomings, India’s foreign policy requires injecting a new vigour that will seek to establish a strengthened Indo-Pacific presence.
One of the cornerstones of New Delhi’s diplomatic outreach - the Act East policy is emblematic of the recalibration of the South-Asian region, which will continue to navigate the complex relationships and power dynamics.
The South Asian region features by blend of cooperation and contention that incorporates both opportunities and challenges as follows:
ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENTAL COOPERATION
Economic cooperation is the pivotal aspect of India’s strategic regional interest. Meanwhile, Indian exports to South Asian countries gained at a moderate rate from US$42.3 billion to US$44 billion in 2022-23. Despite strategic clout, the region marked big economic investments through foreign competitors like the US, Japan, South Korea, France, etc. creating opportunities for fast-growing economies in Southeast Asia to yield better direct tangible benefits.
PM Modi’s re-election is likely to boost India’s economic imperatives under the government’s production link incentives, which would complement South Asian economic aspirations.
In the economic realm, India’s prime focus on strategic regional connectivity and infrastructure projects is a concerted effort towards the integration of regional value chains and supply in conjunction with ASEAN and neighbouring countries aiming to diversify away from China.
A shift in trajectory to increased access to the Indian markets through trade liberalisation and initiatives like the IMT Trilateral Highway connecting South Asia with ASEAN countries has the potential to boost two-way trade and supply chain resilience. Thus, India needs to intricately balance its flourishing ties with ASEAN economies like Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, and Thailand with increased engagement with the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, & Vietnam) countries.
Thus, Project Development Funds have been used under the aegis of the Mekong Ganga Cooperation to foster cooperation between India and countries of the Mekong region.
ADDRESSING SECURITY CONCERNS
The escalation of conflicts raises concerns about the potentially destabilising unity of ASEAN and South Asian people through the rise of extremism. This coincides with India’s role as the net security provider and rule-based order with its focus on promoting a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’.
In addition, India’s quick maritime responses, capacity-building measures, and military exports among neighbouring and ASEAN nations are likely to scale up the security dimensions further. India’s growing military expanse expects a sharing of logistics and intelligence with faithful partners conducive to its strategic interests.
MULTIPOLARITY AND PLURILATERALISM
The emergence of the global south has been a significant endeavour to elevate developing nations onto the global stage, which has heightened expectations. India has uniquely positioned itself as a neutral and amicable nation actively pursuing impartiality with comprehensive resolutions to global complexities.
India’s approach of having strategic autonomy through non-alignment transformed into a multi-alignment policy used to gain maximum leverage in the global arena. However, this approach is often scrutinised for straddling all sides without fencing around key issues.
For India to secure itself as a meaningful partner in the region, skepticism of “Big Brother” could be eschewed only by ensuring central unity among the ASEAN members.
So, PM Modi’s 3rd term will accrue to build overseas communities that facilitate the promotion of the national interest of the global south by fashioning its democracy and knowledge through interim plurilateral regional groupings. Thus, India’s networking of strategic partnerships plays a central role in advancing improved global south governance without imposing conditional demands.
CLIMATE ACTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
Amid escalating climate concerns, South & Southeast Asia became a maneuvering hub for clean energy. As nations navigate the challenges of transitioning to clean energy sources, the growing perspective emphasises collaboration, innovation, and collective responsibility.
Thus, India’s testament in promoting a sustainable livelihood approach to climate adversaries serves as a binding factor in the region. India’s capability necessitates scrutinising crucial initiatives, navigating obstacles, and seizing opportunities among the Asian members that influence the trajectory toward greater environmental sustainability and prosperity.
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Efforts are underway to decarbonise many of the largest Southeast Asian economies under Indian initiatives such as One Sun One Grid, and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, highlighting a commitment to environmental stewardship.
The focus of the government will be out there to accommodate South-South collaborative efforts as a viable solution, facilitating the exchange of knowledge and best practices.
CHALLENGES
Despite India’s status as a regional power, its position is threatened by China’s increasing clout in South Asia. Amid the alleged debt restructuring for regional power, China has expeditiously established its foothold in these countries across different sectors.
Unsurprisingly, China's sustained efforts to project cultural affinity through track 2 diplomacy created a natural ceiling for China’s strategic influence.
Moreover, India should endeavour to circumvent disputes with neighbouring countries, even minor ones, that may compromise the neighbourhood-first policy. It may lead to opportunities for China and its allies to strengthen their influence and diplomacy in India's backyard. India's regional connectivity strategy must take account of neighbouring and Southeast Asian countries' political, economic, and cultural sensitivities.
The rapid geopolitical changes desire a cautious, deliberate approach to strengthen the partners.
CONCLUSION
This is where Indian Foreign Policy aptly rediscovered the relevance of the Kautilyan statecraft in its neighbourhood-first and Look East policies. India’s aspirations are valid, but it will be a steep hill to climb, considering other domestic priorities. As the third term begins, there are high stakes in India’s role in South Asia.
The competent foreign policy team backed by Dr. Jaishankar promises to usher “Peace, People’s Prosperity and Partnership’ in South Asia. Thereby bringing about a positive transformation of the region. Indeed, there will be another year to see how India finesses its balancing act.
BY DIPTISIKHA SAHU
TEAM GEOSTRATA
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