Imploring the ‘Why’ Factor: Genesis of Multipolarism or Disastrous Backtracking?

“The earth will be under one government, and one language will be written and understood, or even spoken, all over the globe. There will still be different races and perhaps allied nations, but travel and commerce will be free and calamities will be alleviated.” ~ E.E. Fournier d’Albe, an Irish physicist and chemist, expected a Utopian society for those lucky to be alive in 2025.

Illustration by The Geostrata

Several credible scientists, sociologists, and political analysts had predicted a cogitable utopian dream for the awaited future; the 21st century. A disappointing reality comes up front, seemingly as 2025 is on a pathway to become a confluence of military wars, ceasefires, threats, and global feats.

 The 2022 Ukraine-Russia War, the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict, the 2025 India-Pakistan armed conflict, the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, and the Sudanese Civil War. The circumstances in which countries are forced to war with each other are neither influenced by the US, at least not as the prime cause of the happening; nor are they ‘survival’ wars, wherein one’s livelihood is jeopardised or resources are dangerously obsolete. 

DISGUISED MULTIPOLARISM

In such a situation, we are forced to contemplate whether this might be the initiation of the long-awaited political dream: Multipolarism. It appears uncannily, clad in the disguise of wars and evolving world geopolitical alliances, rather than how we would’ve liked to imagine it; a quixotic transition of powers, in a peaceful UN meeting, accompanied by treaties and agreements. 

The United States of America no longer holds the virtuoso authority in entailing itself in inter-national hostilities for whatever may be the cause, that it previously enjoyed with preeminent status quo.

In the not-so-recent past, Middle Eastern and Asian Countries were credited with their obligatory affiliation towards the US to prosper. While this might have been true for the respective timeline, this couldn’t be said for the 21st century as well. 

Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s national address, is enough to provide us with a glance at the dismantling of the Unipolar World, and possibly the USA itself. “Iran will not surrender and warned that any US military intervention would result in ‘irreparable damage’.” 

Now that we have discussed the possible onset of a Multipolar world, the deteriorating position of the USA in military-based conflicts, or war-like situations, and the crumbling of the imagined utopian experience of the 21st century, we are left with the last question; 

Why is there an upsurge of Military conflicts all across the world? Why are these wars simultaneous? Why does it matter if they are all happening at the same time?

POTENTIAL CAUSES

During the 19th and 20th centuries, the only wars with a huge magnitude and mass casualties were World War 1 and World War 2. Invasional and Independence motives were deemed to be the sole causes of decision-making as to whether or not to endanger the human population through the means of war. This is the reason why most of the wars in the 18th to 20th centuries are given a ‘rational explanation’, a ‘pardon’, and thus, we don’t often see them take the limelight when it comes to human rights and social justice.

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A juxtaposition is evident in recent times; multiple countries are currently engaged in military conflicts, all at the same time. It is not to free themselves from a superior colonial power or the orthodox defence agendas. It is because the advancement of technology and the disruption of established powers by small, agile players cause nations to think beyond the subconscious homo-sapien mind; beyond basic amenities, that is, shelter, food, and cloth.

Modern technology has made conflict less expensive, faster, and more lethal. Drones, cyberattacks, AI-enabled weapons, and electronic warfare invite smaller actors—and even non-state groups—to join in combat, escalating hostilities.

Technology offers countries with rapid innovation cycles, enabling them to actively change their priorities while being in a hostile situation. In the USA, startup Rebellion builds mission-focused AI products for the defence and security sectors.

The startup uses machine learning and the power of data to deter threats and drive mission success. Integration of Military Robotics, Autonomous Systems, and Cat and Mouse dynamics adds to the easy accessibility of weaponry and thus, indirectly encourages the possibility of multiple wars at the same time.

THE VACUUM

Another possible cause is that the 21st century has seen the interlocking of civil wars, trade agreements, and overlapping policies. None of the wars that we see are occurring in isolation; rather, it’s an ongoing attempt to fill the vacuum caused by the decreasing unipolarity of the world.

The aimed agenda to achieve multipolarity has its ill effects. Recent data shows that while the number of battle deaths fell last year, overall, the past three years saw more conflict-related deaths than at any time in the last three decades.

The dramatic increase in battle deaths was driven by three conflicts: civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the bombing of Gaza. 2023 saw an overall 122,000 battle deaths, with over 71,000 people killed in Ukraine and some 23,000 killed in Gaza in less than three months of 2023.

As we conclude, consecutive war-like situations exhibit a growing need for multipolarism or neanderthal primitive instincts to subsume in violence. The evolution of global institutions, norms, and collaboration alongside growing powers will determine whether 21st-century multipolarism is a pathway towards a long-dreamt utopia or a return to the instability of the past.

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BY SAMRIDDHI

TEAM GEOSTRATA

info@thegeostrata.com