Heat Wave in the South and Southeast Asian Region: Implications of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Threats

Global temperatures have soared recently, and the trend has continued till 2024. The alarming temperatures have surpassed the expectations of the previous decade, leading to a temperature increase of more than 0.73 degrees Celsius. Such conditions have increased the temperatures beyond 1.68 degrees Celsius of the pre-industrial levels.

Illustration by The Geostrata

The heat wave conditions have increased non-traditional security threats in the South and Southeast Asian regions. By keeping food, water, and energy security as potential indicators of non-traditional security threats, the article tries to understand the implications of heat waves in the South and Southeast Asian region. 

FOOD SECURITY AND HEAT WAVE CONDITIONS

The heat waves have resulted in increased impacts in the Indo-Pacific region. The region is home to agriculturally fertile countries involved in primary product trade relations. The case of heatwaves over the years has resulted in reduced agricultural production. Reduced food production can be justified in Southeast Asia, which is considered one of the vital rice-producing regions in the region.

With temperatures soaring over 40 degrees Celsius, the production of crops like rice has reduced significantly.  The same is evident in Indonesia’s case. The country witnessed a drop and fluctuations in rice production with soaring temperatures.

The productivity of rice reduced from 31.53 million tonnes to 30.9 million tonnes in the current year. In the case of Thailand, crop production has fallen due to an ongoing  El Niño event.

Such situations have forced farmers into debt and defer their annual planting season owing to drying and diminishing water resources. Therefore, the heatwave conditions will impact the export of crops like wheat and rice, whose productivity has reduced. Such conditions are likely to reduce food security issues, with governments limiting and banning the export of food products from their countries. The same was evident in May 2022, when the government of India had to ban wheat exports as the product’s price rose nationally by 60%.

Therefore, the heatwave conditions are likely to impact global food security owing to reduced productivity, rising national prices, and export limits by the governments to preserve the supply of food products in the market of their respective nations and provide aid to citizens who rely on their local administrations for food aid. 

HEATWAVE AND WATER SECURITY

The heatwave conditions facilitated by the present El Niño conditions will lead to water security issues in the regions under discussion. In recent years, increased temperatures have increased the disputes between the upper and lower riparian states. Such conditions have exaggerated the historical water and river-sharing disputes across the regions under discussion. Water-sharing disputes added by heatwave conditions have put pressure on upper riparian states.

Such a case can be witnessed in the case of Cambodia and Laos, which increased diplomatic pressures on its neighbour China over the construction of 11 dams since 2019, leading to reduced water levels for the states located in the Lower Mekong region. 

Such conditions have increased government spending in the region to tackle issues related to the water crisis. In the case of China, the Ministry of Water Resources has increased its investments in projects to tackle water security issues. In 2022, China approved more than 25 projects with an investment of U.S. $ 246 billion as provinces like Hubei faced drought conditions. In the case of South Asia, the conditions of heat waves are likely to increase water security issues for its population plagued by increased water stress levels. In the case of South Asia,  around 74% of the population is dealing with increased water stress levels.

The climatic conditions of increased heatwaves, reduced rainfall, and prolonged droughts have disrupted the availability of sufficient water for the population in the region. Such conditions will have profound implications for the region dominated by water sharing and security disputes. The climatic conditions affecting water security will exacerbate the river disputes involving the Indus River. Therefore, traditionally hostile countries like India and Pakistan will likely face political and security tensions involving such rivers.

Such conditions will likely impact the river systems, as they are marked by heat waves and climate conditions, leading to water overuse for irrigation and demands.

INCREASED DEMAND AND ENERGY SECURITY

The heatwave conditions are likely to increase energy security issues across the region. Such conditions have resulted in increased electricity use and the intense use of cooling devices across the region. In most countries in the regions, the increased rate of air conditioning has triggered a power crisis. The countries across the regions have led to increased energy imports.

The increased energy imports can be indicated by the case of China, which increased coal imports from countries like Russia. The import of coal from Russia to China was recorded at more than 8.54 million tons in August 2022. In the South Asian region, the supply of coal increased significantly.

The same is evident in the case of India, which increased coal supplies from countries like Indonesia and the United States. Countries like the Philippines have witnessed increased electricity demands, leading to the collapse of the power system. Such conditions have resulted in increased air conditioning, leading to stressed electric grids due to increased heat wave conditions.

The increased use of electricity has been recorded in Thailand’s case. The country’s usage increased to 36,700 MW as the temperature rose to 42 degrees Celsius.  The countries in the region, like India, have also created closer energy cooperation and relations with countries like Russia to alleviate their energy security concerns. 

In conclusion, the South and Southeast Asian countries have witnessed increased temperatures and heat waves due to climatic conditions. Therefore, the region has witnessed the resurfacing of non-traditional security issues around water, energy, and food security issues.

The core affected areas will likely increase pressure on already strained socio-economic relations. 

In such a case, the governments in the region need to step up to prevent the effects of heat waves on their populations by adopting local solutions that encourage drought-resistant crop varieties and supporting wide-scale public distribution systems. 

To tackle the electricity shortages, the governments can encourage the local community to embrace renewable energy solutions to meet essential power requirements during power outages and grid failures.

Governments in the regions must also promote water conservation systems powered by renewable energy solutions to tackle water security challenges during heatwave conditions. Therefore, the prevailing conditions require proactive governmental interventions to protect their populations from heat wave risks.  

---

BY ANIRBAN DUTTA

TEAM GEOSTRATA

info@thegeostrata.com