Demography and Geopolitics: The Case of Germany

Demography focuses on various aspects of the human population, like its size, age group, fertility rate, and mortality rate. As the type of population present in a nation can affect its domestic and foreign policy decisions, it is evident that there is a complex interplay between demography and geopolitics. In the 19th century, Germany saw an increase in its population, which was proportional to its rapid development.

Illustration by The Geostrata

However, presently it is experiencing a decline in its population, which is directly impacting its economic growth. As Germany has been on both ends of the spectrum, it offers valuable insights to understand the effect of changing demographics on geopolitics. 

Since the pre-industrial period, the relationship between demography and power has been proportional to each other. This relationship guides the geopolitical landscape of the International System.

Stephen Walt explains that a state obtains its “aggregate power” through “population, industrial and military capability, technological prowess." George Weigel elaborates that the reason for power shifts in the global order was because of the mistakes committed by Europeans, calling it “demographic suicide." The shift in the centre of gravity of the world economy from the Atlantic to the Pacific was due to the population vacuum left, according to Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba. This explains the rise of China, India, and Asian powers in general.

Even though technology has progressed, “the logic of power is both capital and technology-intensive” and outweighs the demography factor; demography significantly influences domestic politics and geopolitics.

According to Hervé Le Bras, demography can also be weaponized. Turkey has used the Syrian refugee crisis to obtain leverage in its negotiations with the European Union (EU).

EFFECT OF CHANGING DEMOGRAPHY ON GERMANY'S GEOPOLITICS

Germany is one of the interesting cases to understand the relationship between demography and its effect on geopolitics. Germany saw a rise in population and industry in the 19th century. Its rise until 1945 was heavily influenced by its demographic dividend. On the contrary, the present Germany is facing an ageing population and witnessing a slow economic growth rate.

The population of Germany is 84,398, 855 (as of October 2024). The median age is 45.3 years (2024), and the average life expectancy is 81.5 years. The birth rate is 1.35 children per woman, which is significantly lower than the global average of 2.31 children per woman. This indicates that the population of Germany is declining, the majority of the population is ageing, and there is a steep decline in the birth rate. Germany’s demography has had a downward trend for a few years now. 

Among the G7 countries, Germany is having the slowest economic growth rate. While several factors, like the pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, have contributed to it, the ageing population has been identified as one of the chief contributors.

This is a structural problem that is placing more pressure on the reducing workers who must bear the GDP share of the growing retirees. By 2036, the baby boomers of Germany will be retiring, and the shortage of labour force will drastically affect the economy of Germany. The declining labour force is also likely to put off investments. 

The demography of Germany also decides the consumption patterns of the country. The older generation has different consumption patterns than the younger generation. For instance, seniors in Germany prefer buying mobility aids rather than consumer electronics. They can shape the consumption pattern of the country as they are wealthier than the younger generation and large in number.

Germany is a hub for several huge technological companies and one of the leading countries of Industry 4.0 working on the development of relevant technologies. Due to the global trend towards “digitizing the manufacturing," there is a vast scope for global growth in this domain. However, the shrinking workforce is becoming a huge challenge for Germany to lead Industry 4.0.

Demographic shifts in Germany are affecting its security policies as well. After World War II, Germany significantly reduced its military forces.

However, following Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, it decided to increase its military spending to strengthen the army. However, the decline in population does not support this mission, and the number of pensioners is mounting each year. 

Germany’s immigration policies have been made stricter. Incidents such as the August 2024 attack claimed by the Islamic State have created major concerns regarding immigration in Germany. Parties like Alternative for Germany and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are advocating for stricter immigration laws in the country.

On 18 October 2024, the German parliament decided to have tougher restrictions for specific asylum seekers. However, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has identified the issue of declining population and its effect on Germany’s economic growth. He has emphasized Germany's need for immigrants.

GERMANY'S STRATEGIES FOR DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES 

To cope with the demographic shift, Germany has come up with mainly three strategies. The first is to extend the working age of people beyond their retirement. The second is to encourage women to be a part of Germany’s labour force. And the third is to allow more skilled immigrants into the country.

However, these strategies do not comprehensively address the central challenges faced by Germany. Physically intensive jobs require the youth, which cannot be fulfilled by extending the retirement age of the older population. Encouraging more women to be involved in the workforce offers a promising alternative.

The option of increasing the inflow of immigrants into the German workforce has several challenges. The German citizens perceive this strategy as a threat and has led to increased xenophobia in the country. This has also led to Germany adopting stricter immigration policies.

POTENTIAL STEPS THAT COULD BE TAKEN:

Undertaking the following suggestions could help Germany and other ageing countries cope with their demographic shifts:

1. The concept of ‘silver economy’ can be incorporated into Germany. Silver Economy talks about focusing on the market requirements of people over 65 years. Germany’s largest age group (40-59 years) holds a major market share, and catering to the requirements of this age group may significantly boost Germany’s economy. 

   
   

2. Other countries with ageing populations, such as Singapore and Japan, have begun investing in Artificial Intelligence, automation, and robotics to cope with their ageing populations. As Germany is one of the leading countries in technology, it offers Germany an opportunity to collaborate with them. 

   
   

3. One of the strategies adopted by Germany is immigrating skilled foreign professionals. Even the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has emphasised Germany’s need for immigrants for its growth. Hence, having discussions and garnering public support for better immigration policies is crucial for the success of Germany’s plan. 

   
   

CONCLUSION

To conclude, it is evident that demography is still one of the most decisive factors affecting a state’s national power. While technology and innovation outweigh the demographic factors, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has proved that human power cannot be ignored. By 2030, the world will have over a billion senior citizens who will significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of the world.

The rise of major economies like China and India has been due to the increasing demography. The case of Germany shows us both sides of the coin. The current young population, such as in India, can actively prepare for the future scenario by understanding the case of Germany.

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BY VIDYA PARAGI

TEAM GEOSTRATA

info@thegeostrata.com