China’s Long Game: Military Expansion, Regional Coercion and India’s Strategic Choices

The US Department of War (formerly Department of Defense) submitted its latest annual report on Chinese military and security developments to the US Congress, highlighting Beijing's military expansion, both horizontal and vertical, its growing dominance in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, cyber warfare, etc., leading to wider implications in the Indo-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America.

Illustration by The Geostrata

The report also claims that the Indian northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh forms one of the “core interests” of Beijing, and it is actively seeking to set up dual-use bases in Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to expand its footprint in South Asia.

SINO INDIAN THAW (TACTICAL DE-ESCALATION AMID PERSISTENT MUTUAL DISTRUST)

The report notes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, in 2024, paved the way for renewed high-level engagements between the two countries for smoother border management and a gradual reset of the bilateral relationship.

Also, the disengagement in contentious patrolling points in Eastern Ladakh has led to the beginning of the normalisation of ties marked by the resumption of direct flights, visa services and PM Modi’s participation in the SCO Summit in Tianjin, China.

The Pentagon asserts that this thaw is being leveraged by China to undermine the strengthening of the India-US strategic partnership, and at the same time, Beijing is deepening its military ties with Pakistan, supplying advanced platforms, frigates, combat aircraft, including the J-10C multirole fighter jets, in addition to Caihong and Wing Loong unmanned aerial vehicles, etc. 

While the US itself has recently warmed up to Islamabad, sanctioning a $686 million package for technology upgrades to Pakistan's F-16 fighter fleet and pushing for deployment of its troops in the post-ceasefire Gaza, New Delhi is well aware of these developments and therefore adheres to a cautionary approach in engaging with both Washington and Beijing.

CHINA'S CONTENTIOUS REVISION IN ARUNACHAL PRADESH

The report marks India’s Arunachal Pradesh as one of the “core interests” of Beijing, along with Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Senkaku Islands, to achieve the ultimate goal of “the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” by 2049 under the leadership of Xi. The Great Rejuvenation doctrine is an integral part of the CCP’s ideology, aiming to restore China's precolonial glory.

This is similar to Mao Zedong’s "Five Finger Policy", where China views Tibet as the palm of its hand and the five surrounding regions - Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Arunachal Pradesh as its "fingers", aiming to expand its control over them through greyzone warfare, including the salami slicing. China claims Arunachal Pradesh (which it calls Zangnan) as the southern part of Tibet.

In 1960, Zhou Enlai, former Premier of China, proposed a swap deal, asking India to concede Aksai Chin for Arunachal Pradesh. India rejected the offer, and it has been the key flashpoint since the 1962 Sino-Indian conflict.

Even today, Beijing frequently resorts to undiplomatic tactics, including renaming various places in the state, altering its maps to skew Arunachal’s geography, harassing Indian citizens from the state in its immigration centres in its airports, etc. India, from time to time, asserted its uncompromising sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh and has issued strong rejections of Beijing’s unwarranted claims.

CHINA'S MARITIME FLASHPOINTS (TAIWAN STRAIT AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA) Taiwan continues to remain the primary and immediate target of Beijing. The report warns that while China is “not fully confident” that it could invade and take control of Taiwan, it is considering a full-scale invasion as a “prudent option”, and plans a multipronged strategy involving conventional military strikes, economic pressure, diplomatic and unconventional warfare, cyberattacks, electronic warfare targeting critical communications infrastructure, etc.

This is evident in China’s recent ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy towards Japan following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statement on Taiwan’s security, with Beijing vowing to inflict a “crushing defeat” on any external involvement in Taiwan.

China considers the South China Sea as “the Chinese Lake”, claiming it is almost entirely within the Nine-Dash Line. It is rapidly expanding its military presence with the deployment of its aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and the Shandong, aerial platforms such as the J-20 and J-16 fighter jets, Type 075 amphibious assault ships, Dong Feng ballistic missiles, flexing its strength with drills like the ‘Joint Sword’, engaging in airspace violations in Japan, South Korea, etc., and arm-twisting coast guard forces and fishing vessels of the Philippines, leading to rising temperatures in the Indo-Pacific. 

India has always supported a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. While New Delhi officially backs the “One China” policy, it has stepped up its diplomatic engagement with Taipei recently, recognising its strategic weight as the "semiconductor factory of the world", and leveraging its ties with the Tibetan community and the Taiwanese leadership to counter the Chinese narrative on Kashmir, Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. 

Stability in this region is of utmost importance for the Indian economy, as over 55% of India’s trade passes through the South China Sea and Malacca Strait. The recent US National Security Strategy, adding a “Trump corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, focuses on regional dominance in the Western Hemisphere and calls for a more transactional and burden-sharing approach in the Indo-Pacific security architecture.

New Delhi needs to navigate these changing dynamics and has consistently emphasised multilateral cooperation in the region through platforms like the QUAD (which Beijing symbolises as “cold war mentality”), IORA, SAGAR, BIMSTEC, IPOI, etc. 

SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC COOPERATION AMID ASYMMETRIC DEPENDENCE The report further throws light on China’s growing proximity with Russia, their deepening defence partnership, and joint military exercises in the Indo-Pacific, especially in East Asia (intimidating Japan and South Korea), flexing their joint military prowess. In 2024, Moscow and Beijing completed seven combined exercises in both aerial and maritime domains.

Russia and China describe their ties as "friendship with no limits", which is marked by growing dependence of Moscow on China after its “isolation” due to diplomatic freeze and economic sanctions by Europe and the USA. China’s energy purchases and yuan-ruble trade support the Russian economy, it also backs Moscow on the diplomatic front, and credible reports indicate China’s increasing military support in the Ukraine conflict.

However, the Kremlin is quite aware of its equations with China and does not want to see itself as a junior partner to China. Russia calls its relationship with India a “time-tested partnership” and regards India as a potential counterweight to balance power equations with Beijing.

Moreover, Russia can also be considered a reliable catalyst in furthering better Sino-Indian ties. Given its long-standing strategic partnership with both New Delhi and Beijing, Moscow retains the ability to keep diplomatic channels open with both sides. This positions Russia as a potential facilitator of dialogue during periods of heightened tension, without being seen as overtly partisan.

EXPANDING CHINESE MILITARY CAPABILITIES ACROSS CRITICAL DOMAINS

The Pentagon warns about expanding Chinese military capabilities in all the critical domains, including conventional, nuclear, cyber, and space, threatening the American homeland.

Beijing has tripled its ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) satellites since 2018, and its nuclear warheads are expected to increase from about 600 in 2024 to around 1000 by 2030, with more than 100 solid-propellant ICBM missile silos likely loaded to demonstrate its counter-strike capability. It continues to engage in greyzone warfare, especially in cyberspace, like the recent Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon infections that targeted critical infrastructure networks, including power grids and telecommunications in the United States and allied countries. 

Beijing is rapidly developing LLM-based reasoning models to strategise military positionings for decisive battlefield victories, coding tasks to assist cyber operations, etc, all the while investing billions into domestic firms like Huawei to attain self-reliance in semiconductors.

India relies on China for critical minerals supply; Beijing leverages this and has imposed global restrictions on its rare-earth exports. In pursuit of its goal of Aatmanirbhar Bharat, India bolstered its domestic defence production under various initiatives like iDEX, DTIS, ADITI, SRIJAN and is actively engaging in joint ventures in manufacturing arms with countries like Russia (BrahMos missile, AK-203 rifles), France (HAMMER Smart Munitions), etc., leading to a significant rise in India's arms exports to a record high of ₹23,622 crore in 2023-24.

New Delhi's “India Semiconductor Mission”, with an outlay of ₹76,000 crore, aims at self-reliance in the semiconductor sector, fostering R&D and securing critical supply chains. India restricted Chinese firms like Huawei from its 5G trials, tightened FDI rules (Press Note 3) in 2020 for countries sharing land borders with India, and introduced the "National Security Directive" in 2021, requiring telecom operators to use "trusted" vendors for sourcing their equipment.

These trends underscore how China’s expanding military and technological capabilities are reshaping the regional security environment, prompting India to pursue self-reliance in its defence, technology, and supply chain domains.

INDIA'S STRATEGIC CHOICES IN AN ERA OF GREAT-POWER RIVALRY

While the Pentagon has raised several legitimate concerns about China, its rhetoric must be read with caution. The thaw in Sino-Indian ties is not without its concerns, given Beijing’s revisionist and expansionist posture. The US, too, currently adheres to a more transactional approach in its ties with India, ranging from its non-accommodative stance on India's energy trade with Russia, which has resulted in sanctions and higher tariffs, to its growing partnership with Islamabad.

Therefore, New Delhi must continue to assert its strategic autonomy, backed by a resilient economy and robust defence capabilities, strengthening its role as a torchbearer of the multipolar world and as the voice of the Global South.

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BY HARSHITHA COVERING MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS

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