A Nation in Waiting: Fragile Future of Kurdish Independence

The Kurdish search for independence has been a complex and multifaceted issue that has stretched over a long period of time. The issue is closely related to the geopolitical influences and tensions of the Middle East. Efforts toward regional stability have often intersected with Kurdish involvement in major conflicts, such as their central role in fighting ISIS.

Illustration by The Geostrata

Despite this, Kurdish movements in Iraq, Syria and Türkiye continue to face strong resistance from their national governments as they pursue autonomy and, in some cases, full statehood. 

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

With over 30 million people, Kurds are one of the largest ethnic groups without a state globally. Their history is covered with the struggle for recognition and autonomy, and they have always been suppressed by their national governments. Their struggle can be mapped to three countries: Iraq, Syria and Türkiye.

The Kurdish struggle for autonomy has played out differently across various states, with Iraq offering one of the most prominent examples. In Iraq, the Kurdish struggle for autonomy has found some success with the establishment of the Kurdish Regional Government in Northern Iraq, where they have had self-rule since the 1990s.

However, their autonomy turned out to be fragile when the KRG organised an independent referendum in 2017. The vote turned out to be an overwhelming ‘yes’ for independence, and it sparked a strong backlash from the central government in Baghdad. The response was the Iraqi forces launching strong military and economic measures that resulted in the Kurds losing control over disputed territories, including the city of Kirkuk, which was an oil-rich city. The loss of Kirkuk significantly weakened their political and territorial standing. 

Amid Syria’s ongoing civil war, the Kurds have established the Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria, commonly referred to as Rojava. They have played a central role in fighting extremist groups and defending their own governing institutions, but their efforts have gone unrecognised by the Syrian government and are seen as a danger by neighbouring Türkiye.

In Türkiye, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which started an armed insurgency against the state of Türkiye in 1984, has now decided to disarm and disband. This development is after decades of conflict, which has only led to losses for both sides and caused massive displacement of Kurdish civilians. There are some who believe this can lead to better relations, but it is highly unlikely that the Turkish government will address the grievances of the Kurds.

INTERNATIONAL ACTORS AND THEIR RATIONALE

International response to the Kurdish movement has been inconsistent and mostly driven by strategic interest rather than support towards Kurdish self-determination. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been key partners to the United States in the fight against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria. The United States has given military support to both sides, but this support has not yet translated into backing Kurdish independence.

The United States is prioritising regional alliances that seem to benefit Turkish interests in the region. Türkiye has been against the Kurdish demand for statehood and was backed by the US, which was evident in 2017 when the United States publicly rejected the Kurdish Independence referendum in Iraq. However, US actions are prompted by its own regional interests in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Regional powers such as Türkiye, Iran and Syria have strongly opposed Kurdish independence; their reason mainly lies in the possible initiation of separatist sentiments within their Kurdish population.

These states see the Kurdish movement as a destabilising force in an already volatile region. As a result, both global and regional actors largely opted to preserve the status quo, often at the expense of Kurdish aspirations.

CHALLENGES TO KURDISH SELF-DETERMINATION

The Kurdish freedom movement faces numerous structural and political challenges that hinder its progress. Amongst the problems, the main reasons are deep internal divisions and the absence of consistent international backing.

The fragmentation within Kurdish factions stems from differing political ideologies, strategic goals and leadership rivalries, all of which have prevented a unified front.

Despite all these difficulties, the governments of Iraq, Syria, and Türkiye remain largely unsupportive and often actively work against the Kurdish aspirations. 

The Kurdish army has been effective in fighting terrorism, but international actors still remain distant in their support for this independence struggle, as it can hurt their alliances and larger regional interests. The authoritarian regimes of Iraq and Syria still don’t recognise Kurdish autonomy and are trying their best to suppress the Kurdish movement domestically with military, political and economic measures. 

WAY FORWARD FOR THE KURDISH SELF-DETERMINATION

In this challenging landscape, the way forward for Kurdish populations may lie in pursuing incremental gains in autonomy with the help of diplomatic engagement, coalition-building across factions, and leveraging their role in regional stability to negotiate more meaningful rights and recognition within the existing framework.

The Kurdish struggle for independence illustrates the complexities of self-determination movements in geopolitically sensitive regions. Despite facing sustained political, military and diplomatic resistance, the Kurds have shown remarkable resilience and enduring commitment to their aspirations.

However, their progress has been slowed down by both internal divisions and external strategic calculations. A lasting resolution will require addressing the Kurds’ legitimate demand for autonomy while also navigating the intricate dynamics of regional and international politics.

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BY OJASW TIWARI

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