BACKGROUND AND BUILD-UP

Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, is the driving force of the current Yemen humanitarian crisis which has displaced 15% of the country’s population. Regular skirmishes between the internationally recognised Yemeni government and the Houthis have led to dire consequences including famine, poverty, and terror, not to mention almost 7 million people on the brink of annihilation due to starvation. 

The Yemeni government, run by Rashad al-Alimi, is backed by Saudi Arabia and the military coalition it leads, while the Houthis predominantly receive support from Iran and the Axis of Resistance. As the conflict draws to the end of a decade, its procession must be traced back to when it first started a little over nine years ago.

HISTORY

Dating back to 2015, several reasons lead to the current full-blown military conflict in the region. Following fuel price hikes in 2014, the then-Houthi movement held rallies and mass protests against the government. 

By the end of the year, the Houthi rebels had captured Sana’a, the capital, and had forced the President,  Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to flee to Saudi Arabia. The military units of Yemen were divided in loyalty between the forces that fought for the Houthis, that is, those who remained loyal to Former President Saleh, and those with the then-current President, Hadi.

HOUTHI ORIGINS AND OBJECTIVES

The origins of the Houthi rebels can be traced back to 2003 when the movement’s leader, Hussein Badr al Din al Houthi spoke against the government’s policies and openly called it corrupt. The movement gained rapid support from the public who shared similar views and other minor movements, resulting in President Saleh unleashing his military force which led to Hussein Badr al Din al Houthi’s death in 2004. In a revenge-oriented attack, the Houthis orchestrated 6 major uprisings in the next six years until 2010 prompting Saudi Arabia, a bordering state, to get involved and aid the government in eliminating the rebels.

SAUDI-LED COALITION - OBJECTIVES AND DYNAMICS

Saudi Arabia held talks with the Houthis for the first time in September of 2023, signalling its intentions to withdraw from the tension with as little disturbance as possible while evolving the peace-building process. 

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has played a key role in maintaining a non-rabid level of hostilities and has managed to keep the Houthis down for quite some time. It further saw its interest in keeping the Houthis suppressed as they operated near Saudi’s southern border with Yemen. 

Furthermore, the region holds prime importance for the oil industry as it would allow Saudi Arabia to construct a pipeline into the Indian Ocean helping it to bypass the Hormuz Strait, where Iran exerts considerable influence on sea lines of communication.

KEY BATTLE FRONTS AND DEVELOPMENTS 

The main battlegrounds in Yemen showcase the humanitarian aspects of the conflict. Hodeidah, which is Yemen's port on the west coast has been a focal point of intense clashes. Both sides consider controlling Hodeidah crucial as it directly affects the delivery of aid to millions of people. In the east Marib has emerged as a battlefield. 

The city and its nearby oil fields hold value to both sides, which the Houthis are aiming to capture in order to strengthen their position in northern Yemen while the coalition aims to protect it as a key stronghold of the officially recognised government. Southern Yemen remains unstable due to movements and changing alliances that complicate conflict dynamics, especially concerning the Southern Transitional Council’s pursuit of increased autonomy or independence.

GLOBAL RESPONSE AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS

The international response towards the Yemen conflict has encompassed a general criticism of the cross-border crisis in addition to the frontal diplomatic work to achieve peace. It has become a challenge for international organisations to deliver aid due to access restrictions and security challenges. 

In this case, careful thought has been given to the use of the United Nations (UN) as an instrument of diplomacy, consciously striving to its humanitarian goals. The focus does not envisage any direct action from the international community, instead, the decisions on military aid and export of military equipment are left to the discretion of the Saudi-led coalition.

FUTURE OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS

Looking ahead at Yemen's future, it is anticipated that in the absence of a political solution, the crisis will further escalate, deepening the problems of food insecurity and healthcare access to millions affected. The problem of fragmented politics continues with different groups controlling different parts of the country, consequently, the country is having difficulty achieving national reconciliation and establishing a strong government. 

The conflict in Yemen not only causes instability in the country but also has far-reaching repercussions for the region, such as influencing the stability of Saudi Arabia and the dynamics of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Yemen has turned into a base where the rivalries of the Middle East are acting out and hence the resolution becomes elusive.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the Yemeni Civil War, which is now almost a decade old, still remains a major reason for the pain Yemeni people suffer. Houthis' resilience and military interventions of the Saudi-led coalition have rather bound the conflict to the extent of prolonging the humanitarian crisis. 

Global diplomatic endeavours have, besides acknowledging the intensity of the problem, witnessed little realisation due to the intense geopolitical tussle and strategic rivalry in the region. Along with the long-term continuation of the conflicts, other factors that should not be neglected are the necessary cooperation of the global community in all healing steps, extended support to the peace block, and justified response to this, one of the most far-reaching crises in the world.

BY TEAM GEOSTRATA