The Rise of A.I. Beyond the Bomb: Shifting paradigm of Nuclear Power to A.I.

The invention of the atomic bomb and nuclear energy is embedded as a remarkable shift in human history, and its impact on the state of global security is even more profound. But, as Artificial Intelligence reaches the centre stage of the 21st century, its inclusion in military strategy and energy generation has become a crucial need of the hour.

Illustration by The Geostrata

Given the sophistication A.I. brings to the table, it has a consequential role in transforming the security and energy landscape and advancing the world’s efforts to secure modern military capabilities and a clean energy future.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF NUCLEAR ENERGY AND ITS WEAPONISATION

The saga of nuclear energy began in 1789 in Germany, when a chemist named Martin Klaproth discovered an element he named Uranium, which marked the forthcoming shift in the security and energy landscape. Between 1895 and 1945, the concepts of atomic radiation, atomic change, and nuclear fission were studied and developed.

At the same time, the idea of an atomic bomb was conceived in the 1940s. Fast-forward to August 1945, Washington dropped the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima and the second one on Nagasaki in Japan.

These bombs were worked upon by a team under the American theoretical physicist R. Oppenheimer at Los Alamos in New Mexico with substantial British assistance. 

On the other side of the world, the USSR’s interest in developing an atomic bomb was piqued by intelligence reports suggesting that such research was under way in America, Britain, and Germany. Stalin then ordered a research program in 1942, and by the time America tested its first atomic bomb, Soviet atomic studies had gained much momentum and progress towards both uranium and plutonium bombs and had successfully tested the first Soviet nuclear bomb in August 1949. 

SHIFTING PRIORITOES FROM NUCLEAR TO AI DETERRENCE

Scientists and researchers created many new technologies, especially in the area of energy generation, in the process of inventing nuclear weapons. They were conscious of the potential of this new form of energy that would empower them to develop compact, long-lasting power sources with multifarious usages, such as heat and electricity generation and power sources for shipping and submarines. Nuclear energy then went commercial between the late 1950s and early 1960s.

The resurgence of interest in nuclear power in the 21st century is the consequence of the advent of A.I., coupled with several critical factors such as the worldwide increase in electricity demand, the need for affordable and clean energy, and environmental concerns.

In recent times, the world has witnessed a paradigm shift from traditional to modern warfare techniques. It primarily indicates the interaction of A.I. with military, communications, and intelligence.

Moreover, Artificial Intelligence has risen beyond being a mere technological innovation to a consequential stakeholder in geopolitical strategy and national defence. It has become a part of both active and passive military actions and plays an impactful role in the domains of narrative warfare, Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), and cyber warfare.

The significant advancements in generative A.I. have immensely impacted the scale and volume of narrative building, as witnessed in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, whereas strategic cyberattacks have witnessed an unprecedented rise in the past decade.

Furthermore, the incorporation of Artificial Intelligence in remotely piloted aircraft systems enhanced their capabilities and also empowered them to perform several tasks with minimal human intervention and/or without putting any human life at risk. 

ALTERING STATE OF SECURITY IN THE AGE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

In order to determine the continued relevance of nuclear weapons, we need to address how AI could alter the state of security and national defence for the world. Sophisticated A.I. could impact the balance of nuclear weapons.

As James Johnson discussed in this book, A.I. and the Bomb: Nuclear Strategy and Risk in the Digital Age, A.I. could distort a nuclear weapon system’s accuracy, resilience, survivability, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance for targeting.

He also asserted that A.I. could compound the capabilities of conventional weapon systems to attack nuclear weapon systems through increased ability to ‘detect, track, target, and intercept’ nuclear missiles. However, until proven correct all such assertions float in the realm of speculations, possibilities, and perspectives. Therefore, although A.I. brought about a transformational change in the military landscape, it continues to serve only as a complement to conventional weapon systems and military strategies.

As far as Nuclear energy is concerned, the perception and opinion of the masses have a crucial role to play in the acceptance of nuclear power, artificial intelligence, cyber security, etc. Nuclear energy sources have always been criticised for their deployment pertaining to the catastrophes they've proven since history and concerns about the waste generated in their manufacturing.

On the contrary, the adoption of A.I. in our routine has remarkably brought about positive changes, like the usage of digital assistants, where we’ve got fingertip access to gadgets. Therefore, Artificial Intelligence holds promising prospects for advancing nuclear energy production. 

With its capacity to enhance efficiency, automation, and accuracy, A.I., when combined with conventional nuclear power generation processes, can yield productive results. For instance, Operational and Maintenance (O&M) costs account for about 40-70% of the total generating costs at a nuclear power plant; lowering these costs would substantially help these reactors be more cost-effective and competitive in the power markets.

Hence, by leveraging the latest advancements in A.I., nuclear power plants can become more cost-effective, save on fuel, and reduce the amount of waste that they generate.

Additionally, Nuclear power is pertinent to meeting the enormous electricity demands of data centres for A.I.. To put AI’s energy thirst into context, a function as basic as a simple GPT query uses ten times more energy than a Google search. This is indicative of the humongous surge in electricity demand that the world will witness in the upcoming years, which will most likely be met by nuclear power in the wake of a climate crisis. Therefore, nuclear power might fuel the AI revolution further. 

In the event of a new surge in the usage of nuclear power to meet A.I. energy needs, strict legal and regulatory frameworks must be adopted to facilitate the safe utilisation of nuclear power as well as A.I.. In order to promote secure and controlled usage of nuclear power sources by various global agencies, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for example enforces stringent canons.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is one of the National bodies, which undertakes the adherence to non-proliferation standards. However, the dynamics of AI remains under development. EU's AI Act is a newly established initiative, which articulates norms to a better & ethical deployment of AI. It also aims to sway the biases and unjust use by making  AI more transparent and accountable.

The development and implementation of nuclear power and AI are subjected to different economic constructs. For example, the construction of a nuclear power plant absorbs millions of currency and requires more than a decade. The economics of nuclear power soaks a long duration of construction time and extensively high costs.

On the other hand, AI consumes less effort and time. It seems to be a quick & scalable alternative with very minimal initial costs. The AI-based energy control systems can be easily optimised and modified with time efficiently. 

Witnessing the operational success of AI, many economies like Denmark have already installed AI-driven technology in their renewable energy initiatives by combining it with wind power plants.

China, having a strong nuclear power potential is also prioritising its AI, innovation and cyber security sector. It is also investing huge funds in AI for smart grid development. Nations like Denmark, Germany, China etc. are the epitome of the shifting paradigm of nuclear power to artificial intelligence. 

In conclusion, the adoption of Nuclear energy and AI has great potential to deliver in defence security, and to mankind at large. Nuclear power when combined with Automation, artificial intelligence, and cyber security brings about a major transformation in warfare techniques and defensive strategies. It must not be mistaken that AI by anyhow is a replacement for nuclear energy, but it serves as an active complementary tool to enhance and diversify the capabilities of existing nuclear pools of energy.

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BY AKUL THAPAK AND SATAKUL CHOUDHARY

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