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The Indian Air Force (IAF), formed in 1932 as the Royal Indian Air Force, has relentlessly secured India’s skies since then. It is the fourth largest air force in the world with a fleet of over 1,645 Aircraft as of 2022.
Cover by The Geostrata
The IAF is tasked with safeguarding the nation’s airspace against evolving threats. The Indian Air Force has also played a decisive role in conflicts/wars and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations. The IAF has been a symbol of India’s aerial dominance, equipped with versatile aircraft to ensure rapid response and defence readiness.
CURRENT STATUS OF THE INDIAN AIR FORCE
A squadron comprises 16-18 aircraft. The sanctioned strength of the IAF is 42 squadrons, but they are currently operating only 31 squadrons. The effective strength is only 29 squadrons, as 2 squadrons of Mig-21 Bison will soon be retired from services by 2025.
The IAF is thus facing a severe fleet shortage as the number of aircraft has fallen to a historic low. With limited replacements and delays in acquiring modern aerial combat platforms, the IAF faces a steep uphill battle to maintain its combat readiness.
IAF will have to retire its aging fleet of SEPECAT Jaguars, Dassault Mirage 2000, and Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29 in this decade further curbing the strength of the Indian Air Force. This increases the growing gap between the IAF’s current capabilities and its sanctioned strength, projected to widen in the coming years, with potentially severe implications for national security.
KEY CHALLENGES
Aging Fleet: The IAF's primary fleet has historically comprised legacy Soviet fighter aircraft like the MiG-21, MiG-27, etc. These jets have reached the end of their operational life and have also been kept in use by upgrading and extending their life frame. The SEPECAT Jaguar has also been upgraded to Darin III and Russia’s MiG-29 to UPG standards but these upgrades won't last very long before becoming obsolete and the aircraft have to be phased out in the coming decade.
Delays in Procurement: The Indian Air Force’s (IAF) multiple trials and tribulations never seem to abate. India’s fighter squadron dilemma has been evolving over the past decade and a half. The Medium Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MMRCA) deal for 126 combat aircraft, whose request for proposal was launched in 2007 has still not been concluded. After years of trials, negotiations, and deliberations, the MRCA was rebranded as the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program in 2018.
High Accident Rate: Between 2001 and 2021, nearly 200 aircraft were lost. This includes several fighter jets, helicopters, and transport planes.These losses have compounded the challenge of maintaining the required 42 squadrons, leaving the IAF far short at around 31 squadrons.
Slow Modernisation and Delay in the Indigenous Program: The Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) program of India’s state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) commenced way back in 1984 and IAF received its first aircraft in 2019. It took around 35 years to produce the aircraft.
The budget of IAF has always hindered the modernisation process leaving the program to stall for years. Programs like AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), TEDBF (Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter), and LCA MK II are still in the developmental stage compromising IAF air power.
China has already developed its 5th-generation fighter aircraft Chengdu J-20 and has rolled out its second 5th-generation aircraft named Shenyang J-35A. Pakistan, being a traditional partner of China, will acquire the 5th Generation Fighter J-35 and thus both Indian adversaries will have 5th Gen fighter aircraft capabilities before India shall.
STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES
The consequences of the dwindling squadrons of the IAF will be seen in its readiness for operations, limiting its ability to sustain itself in a two-front war with China and Pakistan. This will also reduce the IAF’s effectiveness in securing air superiority during the conflict.
India aims to assert itself as a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific region, but a weakened air force undermines its strategic interest and partnerships.
Lower strength of squadrons also hinders pilot training as it is the bedrock of the capabilities and one of the first to be impacted by lower squadron strength as the necessary flying hours required to attain and maintain the desired level of flying skills are not available.
Squadron constraints will put severe stress on the available fleet thus reducing the life of their airframes. The reliance on outdated equipment also significantly strains pilots and ground crew, negatively affecting morale and training efficiency.
INITIATIVES AND RESPONSES
The induction of 36 Dassault Rafales, a 4.5th Generation fighter aircraft, in a fly-away condition, has provided a much-needed boost for IAF. It has enhanced capabilities like an increased combat radius, advanced avionics, and beyond-visual-range missiles.
The Indian government has also given an order of 83 Tejas LCA MK1A which will be delivered by the end of this decade. The government is also looking to order 97 more Tejas LCA MK1A , reflecting strong confidence in the indigenous defence manufacturing system.
The Sukhoi Su-30 MKI is also going through a major upgrade by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) where its radar and engines are enhanced to a modern level further boosting its capabilities.
The Indian Ministry of Defence aims to procure 114 aircraft under the MRFA with participants like the French Dassault Rafale, US’s Boeing F-15 Eagle, Russia’s Sukhoi Su-35 and Mikoyan Gureyvich MiG-25, the Eurofighter Typhoon, and US’s Lockheed Martin F-21.
The selected Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) will manufacture all 114 aircraft in India with significant technology transfer under the “Make In India” category thus creating jobs and bolstering the Indian defence ecosystem. To cope with China and Pakistan's 5th Gen fighters, the IAF is putting its faith in AMCA which is in the developmental stage and will be entering service not before 2035.
As a stop-gap measure, the IAF is looking to procure the old Mirage 2000s from the Qatar Air Force; this will aid the IAF in keeping squadron strength the same until the Indigenous fighter and MRFA aircraft start getting inducted.
CHALLENGES TO OVERCOME
Despite all the steps taken, challenges persist in the name of budget constraints and production delays. The IAF in the past 2 decades has not inducted many aircraft and now is facing a shortage. Immediate induction cannot happen to meet the required number due to the limited funding available.
The IAF has lost valuable time in evaluating options and has yet to finalise the MRFA tender, which has been under consideration for several years. The Tejas LCA MK1A production is facing delay as its engine, the US-made GE-404, is facing a global supply chain issue, and engine delivery to India has been delayed by 2 years.
The IAF faces critical capability gaps like Heavy transport aircraft, air-to-air refuellers, and AEW&CS (Airborne Early Warning and Control System). The absence of sufficient heavy transport aircraft limits the IAF's ability to rapidly deploy troops and equipment during crises, affecting operational readiness.
IAF has 11 Boeing C-17 Globemasters and 17 Ilyushin IL-76s for heavy transportation, 17 Ilyushin Il-78s for aerial refuelling, and 3 Phalcon AWACS developed by Israeli Aerospace Industries, in its fleet as of 2024.
Most of these are ageing aircraft and need replacement. India does not have an Indigenous program for Heavy transport aircraft and the production line of the C-17 Globemaster has been closed since 2015. So it left IAF with only one option i.e. an improved version of Il-76.
The critical need for AEW&S was felt after Pakistan’s Air Force launched a retaliatory attack on India in the aftermath of India’s Balakot Air Strike against terrorists in 2019. AEW&CS are essential for air defence, offensive air operations, and ELINT/Signal Intelligence (SIGINT) operations. Both Pakistan and China have a significant fleet of AEW&CS aircraft posing a great threat to India in case of conflict.
WAY FORWARD
To address the challenges facing the IAF, India must adopt a strategic approach encompassing accelerated indigenous production, streamlined procurement, enhanced defence spending, international collaboration, and a balanced force structure. Expanding HAL’s capacity, integrating private-sector participation, and fast-tracking platforms like Tejas Mk II and AMCA will bolster self-reliance.
Simplifying bureaucratic hurdles and establishing efficient acquisition frameworks can bridge operational gaps. Increasing the defence budget is critical to modernising the fleet, upgrading infrastructure, and supporting R&D like China has done with its Chengdu J-20.
Collaborations with nations like the U.S., France, and Israel can drive technology transfers and co-development for advanced systems. Maintaining a mix of light, medium, and heavy fighters ensures cost-effective operational flexibility, while investments in training and infrastructure, including airbases and simulators, enhance readiness and sustain capabilities. Together, these measures will empower the IAF to meet evolving threats and solidify India’s position as a global aerospace leader.
The depleting strength of the combat fleet of the IAF is indeed a matter of serious concern for all Indians. Couple this with the prevalent situation created by a belligerent and expansionist China and the threat becomes serious which Pakistan will take advantage of.
While efforts are underway to replenish and modernise the fleet, delays in procurement, dependence on imports, and the slow pace of indigenous development have weakened the IAF’s strategic standing. Addressing these challenges will not only enhance national security but also reinforce India's position as a formidable power on the global stage. A robust and modernised IAF is indispensable for ensuring peace, stability, and regional dominance.
BY PRASUN KASHYAP
TEAM GEOSTRATA
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