Build Bihar: A Mandate for the Ages

“The 2025 mandate was fought on the plank of a vivid and vivacious Bihar, with a near-perfect campaign pulled off by the NDA, and gaping failures for the opposition.”

Illustration by The Geostrata

The Bihar Assembly elections that occurred in 2025 provided one of the most resounding surprises and decisive verdicts in the political history of the state. Expected to be a hard-fought contest, the elections turned into a severe defeat for the opposition Mahagathbandhan party and a landslide victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), leaving the opposition shocked and trying to make sense of a substantial defeat.

THE VERDICT THAT DEFIED EXPECTATIONS

When the vote-counting process concluded on November 14, 2025, the numbers revealed a conclusion that few approached with such certainty. The NDA returned to power with a remarkable 202 seats in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly, doubling the magic number of 122 to cross the majority mark of 122--by a huge margin. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan in opposition, a coalition that many believed would at least put up a fight, received just 35 seats--one of the worst showings in recent electoral history.

For the first time in Bihar's history, the Bharatiya Janata Party became the single largest party, receiving 89 seats; the Janata Dal (United), led by Nitish Kumar, followed with 85 seats. This was a recovery from the previous Assembly election in 2020, when it won just 43 seats. Therefore, it was clear Nitish Kumar would be able to take his tenth oath of office as Chief Minister of Bihar--and remain anchored on his claim as one of the longest serving

CHIEF MINISTERS IN INDIA'S FEDERAL SYSTEM

All commentators, including the politician Prashant Kishore, got it entirely wrong, as they estimated Nitish Kumar to slip down to somewhere between 25 - 30 seats. His own party, the Jan Suraaj, which raised important issues concerning Bihar, starting from employment to migration, did strike a chord with the voters, but the impact was minimal as voters chose between, who could really sort their issues out. 

For Tejashwi Yadav's Rastriya Janata Dal, the results were absolutely horrific. A party that once dominated the political landscape of Bihar, the RJD now found itself in the margins. Perhaps, worse still was the Indian National Congress in Bihar, as the party's seat count fell below ten despite contesting one Congress leader remarked after the results, the outcome was "unbelievable," with no political party in India's history managing a 90 percent strike rate as the NDA had got a quota of  61 of the constituencies in the state, a historic less than fifteen percent approval rating. Another factor which dented the RJD’s campaign was the fake paradise promise of one government job each per household, which would have baffled the exchequer, and the voters saw through it from a distance, followed by the poor track record of corruption of the Lalu Yadav family historically.

Another important issue that plagued, the Mahagathabandhan, led by RJD was a shoddy campaign management, where by there was no clear cut pre-poll seat sharing, which led to a total of 12 seats seeing a “friendly fight” between the alliance members themselves, which ultimately benefited the ruling NDA which one all 12 of them, leading to a complete wipe out of parties like the Mukesh Sahni led Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP), who himself was the deputy Chief Minister face of the alliance. This rout even affected the Left parties, which had the best strike rate and winability in the 2020 elections, dropping to a mere 3 seats from the previous 16. 

WHAT THE SURVEYS MISSED

The magnitude of the NDA victory shocked many, including pollsters and political analysts. While most exit polls predicted that the NDA would win, they also suggested that the NDA would win between 130 and 167 seats. In fact, the NDA won 202 seats, well above what the most optimistic assessments had been for the ruling faction. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan's predicted range was between 70 and 100 seats, so an actual outcome of 35 seats was a stunning underestimate of their collapse. Tejashwi Yadav had ridiculed the exit polls as being made "under pressure" from the BJP, but the results vindicated the general trend, even if the dimensions were off. Given the precedent election outcomes, the opposition's confidence in the predictions now looks to have been misplaced.

Perhaps most symbolic of the electoral rout was the performance in traditional seats. For most of the counting day, Tejashwi himself was behind his rival, BJP candidate Satish Kumar, in Raghopur, which is the Yadav family stronghold. Although he eventually ended up winning the race by 14,532 votes, the fact that he had even briefly dropped behind in a seat that his family has held for several decades says everything that needed to be said about the mood of the electorate. His brother, Tej Pratap Yadav, who had been expelled from the RJD, lost by over 30,000 votes in the privileged  “Seat" of Hasanpur.

However the biggest star of this election was Union Minister Chirag Paswan and his Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP-RV), which had gotten a total of 29 seats within the NDA quota, out of which 26 were traditionally NDA losing seats yet, is party managed a total of 19 seats, with a near 100% vote transfer between the allies which help them cross the extraordinary 200 + mark. 

In fact, even the smaller parties like the Hindustan Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM-S), led by Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) of Upendra Kushwaha, which contested a total of 6 seats each, won 5 & 4 seats respectively, keeping their respective caste voted intact and ensuring their complete transfer to the other NDA constituents. 

The smaller outfits are now almost indispensable to the NDA as can be seen from Chirag Paswan's case study, whereby he contested the 2020 election with an election opposing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, dropping his party to its lowest ever tally of 43,  reviving it back to its current total of 85. 

THE WOMEN'S VOTE AND WELFARE POLITICS

Political experts have pointed towards a range of explanations for the NDA's remarkable showing, with the party's support among female voters being the central theme. There was an incredible gender aspect to the election: more registered women voted than men, with 71.78 per cent of registered women voting versus 62.98 per cent of registered men. Moreover, the 67.13 per cent overall turnout was the most notable since 1951.

It seems the ruling alliance's emphasis on welfare policies aimed at women paid off largely. Direct cash transfers to women's accounts as part of government welfare schemes appear to have been the tipping point. Even Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj (where he was the sole candidate from outside of the JD and RJD) failed manifestly to win any seats (despite the hype), saying these cash transfers played a major role in the NDA victory.

Finally, the BJP's strategy of candidate deployment also stood out. Folk singer Maithili Thakur, BJP's candidate, won from the Alinagar seat, becoming Bihar's youngest MLA at 25 years of age and the first time that the saffron party has won that seat. Thakur's win represented the changing face of Bidar politics, and especially the BJP's growing footprint across demographic segments.

The women-driven schemes, which have been a highlight of Nitish Kumar's governance model, starting with the distribution of cycles in 2006, saw a renewed push with the “Jeevika Didi” scheme, whereby INR 10,000 was given to women to start their own business or self-employment scheme. This saw a cross-cutting of votes from various communities, which were traditionally aligned with the Mahagathabandhan, whereby women voters dissented from their families' voting pattern to bring back the NDA to power. 

This was further supplemented by the increase in the amount of the old-age pension in the state and the undisputed election machinery of the BJP, which went about showing a united front while the opposition crumbled. The reminder and mention of massacres, riots, poor administration and such nefarious incidents termed vividly as the “jungle raj” played its own part in cementing the NDA and CM Nitish Kumar in the hearts of the youth, who had not seen the rule of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav. 

THE SHADOW OF CONTROVERSY

Despite the clear verdict, the elections were not controversy-free. The opposition raised serious concerns about the electoral process, including the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter rolls operated by the Election Commission before the election. The SIR asked all voters to fill out forms to be placed on the voter list and, as a result, deleted over six million names—the vast majority due to voters who had died, migrated from the state, or had duplicate names. 

The Mahagathbandhan claimed there were widespread changes to the voter rolls, with the Kerala Congress declaring they had proof of rigging in 128 seats. The opposition pointed out that of the 202 seats won by the NDA, in the 128 seats where voter names were deleted as a result of the SIR, the NDA had also won those seats. Rahul Gandhi stated that the Bihar polls had been "unfair right from the beginning," and said his party would evaluate its performance while continuing to "fight for the protection of the Constitution and democracy." With a 45-day petition filing window still in place post-outing of the results still in place, it's a wait-and-watch game, whether the opposition is really able to strike a balance between its allegation and the ground realities.

The electoral commission explained that the revision was needed to clean up the electoral rolls and previously had not found any discrepancies at any polling station once reviewed. As controversial as the process may have been, it still would put a dark shadow over an otherwise resounding verdict.

THE ISSUES THAT DEFINED THE CAMPAIGN

The 2025 campaign focused on a combination of local and socio-economic concerns that have persisted in Bihar over time. Unemployment and youth migration were the areas most stressed, and all parties acknowledged that many young people from Bihar leave the state for work due to a lack of opportunities. Both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan made commitments to job creation and youth empowerment, with pledges that varied from government jobs for each household to huge investment packages and skills development centres. 

Caste politics continued to be a driving factor, as it always has been in post-colonial Bihar. All major parties pledged support for a new caste census and "social justice" measures, harkening to the widespread calls for action to remedy long-standing caste inequities in Bihar. In presenting themselves as champions of social justice, the RJD and Congress attempted to reassure their stronghold, primarily made up of Dalits. The NDA responded by pointing to their record of governance and then attacking the RJD's past, calling it "jungle raj".

Infrastructure development, health care, education, and law and order were significant topics on which candidates offered their viewpoints. Despite different government efforts over the years, Bihar remains underdevelopment across important spheres, with many rural parts of the state particularly lacking in adequate roads, electricity, hospitals, and schools. The long-standing nature of these issues shaped the decisions voters made, even if not in the direction the opposition wanted.

THE SMALLER PLAYERS AND THEIR IMPACT

Several smaller parties were part of the electoral picture, which made a difference, but not in the ways they encouraged. For instance, Prashant Kishor’s much-talked-about Jan Suraaj Party, which created considerable pre-election buzz, achieved nothing, winning no seats. It was a humbling result for the former poll strategist who had entered active politics to much fanfare.

Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) secured five seats, continuing its unassuming footprint in Bihar. Although not considered a major player, the AIMIM signified an ability to inject itself into the local dynamics in some areas and influence voting, potentially splitting opposition voting in select constituencies. His ability to make the fight for the Seemanchal belt in Bihar a three-cornered contest between the NDA, Mahagathabandhan and the AIMIM only goes to showcase his potential to break away religious vote banks that have been milked in Bihar with no real affirmative socio-economic dividends for the community in the last 20 years. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The 2025 Bihar elections are a turning point in the state’s political history. The NDA’s landslide victory has provided Nitish Kumar and his BJP counterparts with a clear mandate to govern for all but three of the last two decades, without the ineffectual and fractious coalition politics that have characterised Bihar for the majority of that period. This will be Nitish Kumar’s tenth term as Chief Minister, which attests to his political longevity and skill in navigating Bihar’s complex political landscape.

For the Mahagathbandhan, the results are troubling and require serious soul-searching by the alliance. The broad defeat indicates deep-seated flaws in the alliance’s campaign strategy, messaging, and ground organisational capacity. The Congress’s particularly poor showing raises questions about its relevance in Bihar politics, and the RJD has the monumental task of resurrecting the party after quite possibly its worst election outcome in decades.

As Prime Minister Modi told BJP workers while celebrating the win, “Today’s victory is the beginning of a new journey. The trust that Bihar has placed in us has placed even greater trust on our shoulders.” Whether or not the NDA can parlay this electoral mandate into substantive development and address Bihar’s longstanding challenges is yet to be determined. What is certain is that Bihar's political landscape has transformed after the 2025 elections in ways that few expected and that will have consequences for years to come.

The ruling coalition's decision from India's third-most populous state sends a clear message: the NDA played its hand in Bihar's complicated political chess game exceedingly well, and the opposition was left with an unanticipated weak hand. And it was this weak hand that drove the voters, who finally garnished their choice of the NDA, by making it a farewell mandate for CM Nitish Kumar, whose health and capacity to run the state were questioned, only to see a “double-engine” government in Bihar, which promises to build Bihar for the future.

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BY SAUHARDI UNIYAL & KAUSHAL SINGH

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