BACKGROUND AND BUILD-UP

The Somali conflict is a multidimensional battle that began on January 27, 1991, when President Said Barre's authority fell. General Barre's regime was associated with excessive brutality, the suppression of both nationalistic and Islamic opposition groups, and the escalation of interclan rivalry (clannism). 

By 1988, dissatisfaction with the government had led to nationalist organisations across the country, with Northern Somalia (modern-day Somaliland) leading the assault, attacking government and military posts, sparking the First Somali Civil War in 1988-1991. Inter-clan rivalries have increased tensions between the Federal government and regional states, making consensus, state-building, and peacebuilding a difficult process. 

The upheaval resulted in Somaliland declaring independence in 1991, which is still not recognised by any government in the world, and Somalia maintaining control over the northern province. The Puntland area in Northern Somalia announced partial autonomy in 1998, which means they can act independently while remaining part of the Somali Federal Government. Conflicts caused by both internal and external sources have killed over a million people, with many more fleeing to neighbouring nations. 

THE AL-SHABAAB

In early 2007, a new generation of militants emerged on the streets of Mogadishu and other Somali towns, known as the 'Shabaab', or youth, the only self-proclaimed branch of al-Qaeda that has garnered acceptance (and acclaim) from Ayman al-Zawahiri and the 'AQ centre' in Afghanistan. 

Al-Shabaab is an offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union, which split in 2006. It has implemented Sharia rule and is highly influenced by local clan groupings within Somalia. It remains an infamous and extensively talked about Islamist group that has received little research and understanding. 

Since the establishment of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2012, each federal government has worked to create a cohesive and inclusive political space that considers clan politics and alliances, as well as the threat posed by Al-Shabaab. One of the most significant barriers to Somalia's coherent progress is the role of clan interest, or clannism, in politics. 

The bulk of those in authority prioritise the interests of their clans and subclans over the interests of a united Somalia. As a result, politicians are continually sceptical of others' motives and thus unable to effect major change. Even with cooperative efforts, the Federal Government of Somalia and neighbouring countries, with the support of the African Union, Al-Shabaab remains one of the most formidable terrorist threats in Somalia and the region. 

Al-Shabaab continued to leverage its influence in Somalia to extract millions of dollars from residents and companies. The gang carried out numerous violent operations, including IED assaults, suicide bombers, sophisticated attacks, focused killings, ambushes along supply routes, and indirect fire. 

The modalities, tactics, and procedures developed by Al-Shabaab secured its capability to target US interests in the region, while it involved itself in a huge foreign fighter recruitment campaign through intense propaganda in local Kenyan and Ethiopian languages and dialects. 

The Somali civil war broke out when there was a seminal change or deterioration in the world order, where global institutions led by the United States were readying themselves for 'new wars' and 'failing states'. With this background, Somalia soon became an ideal testing ground for a new form of engagement when the United States reacted with an unprecedentedly big humanitarian and military campaign. 

INTERNATIONAL STANCE

International diplomatic efforts were re-energized in 2000 when the Djibouti government hosted the Somalia National Peace Conference in Arta. The 'Arta process' made a significant political breakthrough in August 2000 by establishing a Transitional National Government (TNG) with some national and international support. 

Since the fall of Siyad Barre, the TNG has been the first authority to fill Somalia's position in UN and regional entities. The United Nations and numerous Arab states backed it, but Ethiopia and major donor powers did not. 

In Somalia, the TNG abandoned the reconciliation efforts launched in Arta and became affiliated with powerful Mogadishu clans and the commercial class, which included Islamists. The TNG was challenged by an Ethiopian-backed coalition known as the Somali Restoration and Reconciliation Council (SRRC), which was led by Abdullahi Yusuf. 

INTERNAL TRAGEDIES AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

The ICRC says more fighting in parts of the country has resulted in higher numbers of conflict-related deaths and injuries. Targeted and indiscriminate attacks by al-Shabab, including IEDs, suicide bombers, shelling, and summary executions, caused a high number of civilian casualties. 

The armed group carried out attacks in government-controlled areas as part of its operations in central Somalia. In June 2024, security forces in the capital of Puntland, Garowe, clashed with armed opposition groups during a debate in parliament over changes to the voting system, in which opposition members accused the regional president of trying to extend his term.

According to the media, at least 26 persons were killed. After Somalia experienced five consecutive below-average rainfall, the Gu rains from March to June were better than expected, easing some of the enormous constraints, notably food price increases. However, the rains caused flash floods, prompting tens of thousands of people to escape across the country. 

The United Nations predicts that roughly 4.3 million people will be acutely food insecure between October and December 2023, while 1.5 million children will be acutely malnourished between August 2023 and July 2024. Somalia relies heavily on food imports. Humanitarian agencies encountered significant access hurdles as a result of conflict, targeted attacks on relief workers, widespread violence, limits imposed by conflict parties, including arbitrary taxes, and physical constraints caused by inclement weather. 

Somalia is facing a pivotal year, in 2024 according to the International Crisis Group's senior Eastern Africa expert, Omar S. Mahmood. ‘Several critical timelines linked to both domestic politics and security are coinciding, and the way these are handled will determine the country's trajectory’. 

CONCLUSION

Somalia’s conflict, fueled by political instability, clan rivalries and extremist insurgencies continues to devastate the nation. Despite contributions from the international community, a positive peace remains exclusive. Addressing core problems and establishing inclusive governance is crucial for sustainable solutions for resilient Somalian people.

BY TEAM GEOSTRATA