INTRODUCTION 

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not a phenomenon of the present. The roots of the current hostilities go back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union when Armenia attempted to break from the Shia-dominated Azerbaijan in a referendum dating back to 1988. The article intends to focus on the hostilities from 1994 to 2023. 

NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT IN THE EARLY 1990s 

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the longest-running conflicts of post-Soviet Russia. Tensions started after ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh demanded freedom from the erstwhile Soviet Union. The demands included transferring governing authority to the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) from Azerbaijan to Armenia. 

The tensions erupted after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The fall of the Soviet Union resulted in war and tensions. The fighting and tensions were halted in 1994, but the Armenian forces controlled seven districts of Nagorno-Karabakh. The event resulted in the forced displacement of millions from their homes. The conflict involved Azeris fleeing Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and other adjacent territories. 

The period involved heavy fighting and battles, causing Armenians to take control of the land. The mass exodus and displacement of the population resulted in boycotting the referendum of 1991. The Armenians from Karabakh declared independence in the same year. The declaration of independence and boycott of the referendum by the Azeris resulted in the creation of a de-facto independent state. 

CLASHES FROM 1994 TO 2020 

The period from 1994 to 2020 involved deadly incidents that included drone attacks and the involvement of heavy weaponry during the conflict. The conflict remerged in 2016 after the region witnessed intense fighting at the line of separation, killing hundreds of civilians on both sides. During this period, the mediation talks have not been successful. 

The violence in 2016 resulted in mediation from the Minsk Group of the Organisation on Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The grouping led by countries like the U.S., Russia, and France failed to produce concrete results during the resolution. The period saw occasional signs of negotiations and agreement between the two sides. 

The same was seen in November 2008, when Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who hailed from Armenia’s Nagorno-Karabakh region, signed an agreement with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev. The agreement between the two sides involved commitments to resolve the conflicts in the Nagorno-Karabakh region for the first time in fifteen years. In 2017, sporadic fighting broke out, leading to border clashes. 

The clashes occurred after the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic changed its official name to the Republic of Artsakh. This resulted in fighting breaking out between the two sides. The conflict occurred four days in July 2017 along the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The disputes resulted in 12 casualties and the killing of four soldiers. The conflicts between the two sides broke out in September 2020, resulting in a full-fledged war. 

The clashes between the two sides resulted in six weeks of armed clashes that ended on November 10. The clashes ended with the mediation of neighbouring Russia, which made the two sides sign a ceasefire deal. The deal between the two sides failed to achieve a long-standing peace. The conflicts resulted in an end to the deadly fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, involving the deaths of over 7,000 military personnel and 170 civilians. 

The agreement resulted in Azerbaijan controlling seven districts close to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This resulted in external intervention involving Russian peacekeeping forces controlling the region. Under the present conditions, Azerbaijan resumed control of the seven districts it lost after the Soviet Union’s collapse. The conclusion of the war in 2020 encouraged the volatility of the region. 

The military positions were close to 30-100 metres compared to 2020, where positions were located a few hundred metres apart. The troop movements involved setting up and placing military installations near civilian areas. Such a case showed the volatility between the relations of the two sides. 

BLOCKADE OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH, 2022 TO PRESENT 

The conflicts reemerged in September 2022 between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The escalation started along 200 km of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The blockade resulted in widespread tensions and starvation in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. 

The blockade left around 1,20,000 people suffering from widespread starvation, shelling and human rights violations. The wide-scale issues resulted in the complete collapse of the rationing system. The shortage resulted in the spread of chronic diseases, such as protein deficiency, malnutrition and illnesses. The issue pushed hundreds of families from their homes, leading to a massive refugee crisis. 

After the conclusion of the conflict, the two countries exchanged prisoners of war, a move welcomed by Western powers like the U.S. and the European Union (EU) in December 2023. In May 2024, Armenia returned the captured villages to Azerbaijan. The four villages were captured by Armenia in the 1990s. The move also involved the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers in June 2024. The latest move has been defended by the incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claiming to have a peace deal with Azerbaijan amid wide-scale protests. 

IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

The implications of the conflict will affect India’s interest in the region. The southern Caucasus is essential for India’s International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC). The corridor aims to connect India with the Eurasian and Central Asian landmass through land connectivity. Such conflict will stall its connectivity projects, which will have potential implications for regional outreach campaigns. 

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the conflict between the two countries over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh has reflected the character of a long-standing conflict with implications for the lives of winners and losers. In short, the conflict reflects desperation over warring neighbours and human rights considerations.

BY TEAM GEOSTRATA