Rewriting the Rules: India, China and Russia in Central Asia

In the 19th century, the “Great Game” was the strategic competition between the British Empire and Tsarist Russia over the domination of Central Asia. This historic competition is resurfacing in a modern form, with new players, new tools, and billions of dollars at stake. Central Asia, which had long been viewed as a geopolitical backwater, has emerged as a critical front line in the contest for supremacy among great powers.

Illustration by The Geostrata

Today, China, Russia, and India are the main contenders, each seeking to assert influence over a region abundant in energy and critical to global strategy. What follows is Jaganath Sankaran's piece discussing how these powers are forging Central Asia's future through diplomacy, infrastructure, culture, and hard power politics. This article explores how these powers shape Central Asia’s future through diplomacy, infrastructure, culture, and strategic engagement.

CHINA'S INFLUENCE ON FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS THROUGH INFRASTRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC ENMESHMENT

China's influence in Central Asia has grown dramatically over the past two decades, largely through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Launched in 2013, BRI has enabled China to pour billions of dollars into building roads, pipelines, railways, and digital infrastructure across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. These investments are not just economic; they are profoundly strategic. 

Through BRI, China has secured access to Central Asia’s vast energy reserves and crucial transit routes to Europe. Chinese companies now dominate large infrastructure projects, and many countries in the region are economically dependent on Beijing.

The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline, for instance, delivers natural gas from Turkmenistan to China, bypassing Russian networks and enhancing China’s energy security.

However, China's sway is not without pushback. There is a debate in Central Asian societies about debt dependency, local job losses, and cultural degradation. It is with all its contradictions that China, through its economic power, demonstrates that everyone, but mainly the Western hegemon, has to come to terms with its existence and influence in global politics, framing itself as a development partner rather than a geopolitical hegemon.

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC NOSTALGIA AND SECURITY LEADERSHIP

Central Asia is not a new frontier for Russia but an old backyard. Russia, which was the dominant colonial power during the Soviet period, has a strong cultural, linguistic, and political affinity with the area. Russian remains the lingua franca, with millions of migrant labourers from Central Asia living and working in Russian cities.

Moscow’s influence is also institutional. Through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Eurasian Union (EAEU), Russia maintains military and economic integration with Central Asian states, especially Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. These partnerships allow Moscow to project itself as the chief security provider in the region.

However, Russia’s grip is slipping. The Ukrainian war has weakened its economy and damaged its international image, prompting Central Asian states to diversify their partnerships. Increasingly, they are balancing their historical ties to Russia with new relations with China, Turkey, and even the West. But Russia maintains a giant cultural footprint, and a military presence still gives it a considerable edge.

INDIA: A SRATEGIC LATECOMER WITH GROWING AMBITIONS

Unlike China and Russia, India is physically separated from Central Asia by Pakistan and Afghanistan, making direct land access strategically challenging with multilateral involvement. 

India’s main gateway to the region is the Chabahar Port in Iran, which allows New Delhi to bypass Pakistan to access Afghanistan and Central Asia. Also, India is a major stakeholder in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which links India to Central Asia and Russia via Iran.

India has also sought to intensify its political and cultural relationship through biannual India-Central Asia Summits, capacity-building programs, scholarships, and technology partnerships. While China’s top-down approach, India's approach emphasises mutual respect, democratic values, and sustainable development.

Yet India’s role remains limited due to logistical barriers, limited economic capacity compared to China, and security challenges in Afghanistan. But India’s efforts are gaining attention, especially among Central Asia countries looking to diversify their partnerships and reduce their dependence on any single power.

THE STRATEGIC CHESSBOARD: THREE APPROACHES AND REGIONAL IMPACT

What makes the New Great Game unique is that it is not dominated by military conflict but by economic strategy, the superiority of soft power, and regional diplomacy.

China provides enormous infrastructure investment and financial resources through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. However, its methods often spark concerns about long-term debt dependency and erosion of national sovereignty, leading to growing skepticism within some Central Asian societies.

Russia, by contrast, leans heavily on its historical and cultural ties with the region, offering security guarantees through military alliances such as the CSTO and promoting regional integration via the Eurasian Economic Union. Yet, its global standing has suffered, particularly after the invasion of Ukraine, pushing several Central Asian states to reassess their reliance on Moscow.

Meanwhile, India brings a softer, democratic model of engagement, emphasizing mutual respect, capacity-building, and people-to-people ties. Its approach is viewed more favorably in some circles, especially as a counterbalance to China’s assertiveness and Russia’s legacy dominance.

However, India’s presence remains limited due to logistical hurdles and a lack of direct access to the region.

Central Asian nations are not passive players either. Countries such as  Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are skillfully balancing relationships, accessing investments and assistance from parties on all sides while maintaining strategic independence. This multipolar competition gives them leverage but also makes the region highly dynamic and unpredictable.

Why does Central Asia matter? The stakes are high. Central Asia lies at the crossroads of Eurasia, next to Afghanistan, China, Russia, and the Caspian Sea. It contains a huge reserve of oil, gas, uranium, and rare earth minerals. Its location is very important for trade corridors connecting Europe and Asia.

Whoever emerges as a lasting influence in this region will have an upper hand in shaping future trade routes, energy flows, and security architectures of tomorrow’s Eurasia. As global power centers shift, Central Asia is no longer a peripheral theater; it is emerging as a strategic heartland once again.

A GAME STILL UNFOLDING

The New Great Game in Central Asia is not a reenactment of 19th-century colonial rivalries. It’s a multidimensional, multipolar struggle in which economies, culture, connectivity, and diplomacy are the chosen weapons. China, Russia, and India each come with different strengths and strategies, but the outcome remains uncertain.

For India, the challenge is to maintain consistency, ramp up engagement, and offer credible alternatives. The challenge for China is to mitigate local sensitivities while increasing its sway. And for Russia, the game is about maintaining relevance in a region it once dominated.

In this tangle of interests, Central Asia holds the key to a new balance of power in the heart of Eurasia. The game has begun, and the world is watching.

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BY MUSKAN

TEAM GEOSTRATA

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