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Growth Without Inclusion: How Headline GDP Obscures India’s Three-Tier Divergence, Inequality, and Debt-Fueled Consumption
India currently stands as a definitive outlier in a slowing global economic order. According to the latest estimates by the government, the Indian economy grew by 7.7% in FY 2025-26. Despite global disruption triggered by conflict in West Asia and soaring energy prices, the International Monetary Fund continues to highlight India's growth story. Illustration by The Geostrata The IMF estimates that India will contribute roughly 17% of global growth in 2026. The growing statis

THE GEOSTRATA
12 hours ago4 min read


Borrowing for Growth: The Rise of Household Debt in India
The latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) issued by the Reserve Bank of India in late June 2026 points out an interesting change in India's macro-financial environment. The report claims that India's household debt to GDP ratio hit an all-time high of 45.5%, up from 39.2% seen in March 2021. On the surface, a rising household debt to GDP ratio may reflect financial deepening and improved access to formal credit. But the argument remains incomplete; its macroeconomic implic

THE GEOSTRATA
6 days ago4 min read


India's Export Credit Architecture: From Export Facilitation to Strategic Statecraft
Trade finance is the financial instruments and services used to facilitate global trade in order to fill the gap between the dispatch of goods and the receipt of payment. It mitigates the risks associated with exports and imports through techniques like export credit, guarantees, insurance, and letters of credit, while facilitating cross-border trade. Illustration by The Geostrata Ports, highways, and manufacturing facilities receive policy attention, but for firms to compete

THE GEOSTRATA
Jul 55 min read


Overfunded or Underbuilt?: Rethinking India’s Capital Allocation Story
India's capital allocation story has become increasingly imbalanced. Since 2016, public sector investment has increased because of large infrastructure projects, but private corporate capital spending has not caught up . From FY2020 to FY2024, government capital expenditures (capex) went up by 38.8% in total, but private gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell to about a 3rd of the GDP in 2024. Illustration by The Geostrata Companies have a lot of cash on their balance s

THE GEOSTRATA
Apr 164 min read


Shadow Banking in India: NBFCs and their Role in the Financial Economy
In India’s financial pulse, Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) — Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) are key factors for development. NBFCs are entities that provide similar services to banks but do not hold a banking license, for instance, engaged in the business of loans and advances, acquisition of shares/debenture/securities, leasing, hire-purchase, insurance, and more. Illustration by The Geostrata It has emerged as a vast source of financing for individuals as well a

THE GEOSTRATA
Nov 19, 20257 min read


Fully Convertible Capital Account: Is India prepared for it?
"Capital account convertibility is not an event but a process": RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das WHAT IS A CAPITAL ACCOUNT? The balance of...

THE GEOSTRATA
Oct 13, 20235 min read


CBDC and G20 - An Innovative Digitization Option
Digitization has been one of the priority agendas of the G20 during Indonesian Presidency, which is expected to be further sustained by...

THE GEOSTRATA
Jan 17, 20234 min read


The Global Bond Indices Conundrum
It might be surprising for some people to learn that India's sovereign bonds, also known as G-Secs, are not listed on the global bond...

THE GEOSTRATA
Sep 19, 20224 min read
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