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The siege of Jerusalem in 1187 was one of the most significant battles in medieval times for West Asia that still reverberates implications for the region to the present day. The important point to note here is Salah ad-Din Yusuf ibn Ayyub, one of the most important military generals to lead the battle against the Christian Crusaders, The Battle of Hattin. Here the general led the decisive victory that resulted in the end of the Kingdom of Jerusalem and brought the Old City under the influence of Muslims.
Illustration by The Geostrata
General Salah ad-Din was a Kurd who had shown immense bravery, Palestinians and other Arabs revere him and Saddam Hussein in his speeches used to invoke his name. The Kurds about 36 Million people are a part of four nations: Türkiye, Syria, Iraq and Iran make up the NEWS of the ethnicity and are the largest stateless people group in contemporary times.
Post World War 1, The Treaty of Sevres in article 62 had articulated, "a scheme of local autonomy for the predominantly Kurdish areas.”
This article examines the geopolitical demanding situations hindering the formation of Kurdistan as a feasible country in modern-day times from the perspectives of Türkiye and Iraq. The analysis will concentrate on those states' strategic interests and concerns concerning Kurdish autonomy.
Türkiye is an important state when the talk about the future of Kurdistan emerges in contemporary debates. For decades Ankara has resisted the formation of a state not only within its borders but also outside its borders as it feels not only its internal sovereignty threatened by the Kurds. In 2017 when there were referendum elections in Iraqi Kurdistan, Türkiye President Recep Tayip Erdogan articulated that these results from the elections are illegitimate and will be deemed void and null.
This fear is due to the reasoning that if one region in Kurdistan secedes from one nation, it would open a pandora’s box for other regions, and Türkiye has important political leverage in holding its Kurdish population. The presence of West Asia’s two important rivers, Euphraties and Tigris, has its origins in South Eastern Anatolia.
These rivers help in providing to the nation about 52 per cent of water from the Euphrates - to which it contributes 89 per cent - and 14.1 percent water from the Tigris, to which it contributes 52 per cent.
From this Ankara uses these rivers for freshwater domestic purposes and for generating hydrogen. The Turkish used to import about three-fourths of its energy demands from abroad. Since 2007, the Ilisu Dam project saw the construction of 22 dams and 19 power plants for hydroelectricity.
Ankara has significant strategic importance associated with the Dam. Political Scientist Wilson articulated that the dam was central to the development project in the region given its sheer scale and size. Furthermore it will be an essential project to tap in the Hydro energy epotential present in the Tigris River and would not create flooding of the nearby areas. Turkiye therefore has been fiercely resistant about other Kurds forming an independent Kurdistan due to its independent fight with Kurds present in its own border.
The Kurdistan Workers Party, acronymed as the PKK established by Abdullah Ocalan has been engaged in a long and brutal struggle against the Turkish government since 1984.
Out of many battles they have had, the most important attack in recent times would be the 2023 attacks on Ankara which led to the death of both attackers and injured two personnel.
It is critical to note that this took place right after President Erdogan took power for the third time. This resulted in the armed forces taking strong action against Kurdistan Targets in Iraq and Syria, through airstrikes and drones launching massive attacks on sites that received condemnation from Iraq. With large Kurdish populations in northern Iraq, Türkiye's worries increase past its borders because the Iraqi Kurdistan area has driven for greater autonomy.
During Saddam Hussein's rule from 1978, the Kurdish populace in northern Iraq faced hardships and become subjected to excessive human rights violations. The regime's rules towards this ethnic cleansing caused large suffering and displacements. A horrifying story would be one during the Anfal Campaign which happened during the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988 resulted in the systematic destruction of several cities and four thousand Kurdish Towns.
This resulted in the death of about 180,000 Kurds due to the actions of the Iraqi army which has resulted in the Iraqi High Tribunal calling it a Genocide When the US had attacked Iraqi bases during Operation Desert Storm, it had created a no fly zone over Iraqi Kurdistan that resulted in the Kurds taking control over the sphere of influence and holding free and fair elections.
Through the United Nations Resolution 986 that granted about 13% of Iraqi oil revenue and the Food for Aid programme helped strengthen the infrastructure and food structure of the region. The present administration, Kurdistan Regional Government is able to influence decisions in the region and have cordial relations with the West.
Since 2010s onwards, Iraqi Kurdistan has played an integral role in generating about a third’s economic trade with Türkiye and third of Iraq imports from Iran valued at US $2.5 Billion and $2.4 Billion respectively.
The important asset for KRG is its 13 oil fields present in its sphere of influence which in 2022 saw the production of 158 million barrels of oil which helped the government generate a revenue of US $34 million.
It critically passes through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and gets exported from Ceyhan port to the world markets. Despite its efforts to broaden independent oil exports, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has faced financial strain from Baghdad to utilize the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO).
Consequently, the KRG has acquiesced to the Iraqi authorities's terms, agreeing to export oil through SOMO instead of pursuing alternative channels. Due to the reliance of revenues from oil exports, the Kurds residing in Iraq had to take its decision and cooperate with the Iraqi state.
This is perfectly put by Political Columnist Nawras Jaff highlight, “This time, however, international pressure or acquiescence appears to have closed all doors on this key aspect of Iraqi Kurdish autonomy: the financial independence of the KRG from Baghdad.” The Iraqi Kurds' pursuit of autonomy is restrained by using their reliance on oil sales and Baghdad's leverage over export channels.
The quest for an impartial Kurdish country faces tremendous demanding situations from each Türkiye and Iraq. Türkiye's competition stems from issues over its inner sovereignty and the capacity for secession of its own Kurdish population.
The strategic significance of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which originate in southeastern Anatolia, and the hydroelectric capacity of the Ilisu Dam task in addition complicate the problem. Iraq, on the other hand, is wary of the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) autonomy and its control over oil fields in northern Iraq.
Baghdad's leverage over the KRG's oil export channels and the reliance on oil sales have compelled the Iraqi Kurds to cooperate with the vital authorities. Additionally, the historic legacy of the Anfal genocide underneath Saddam Hussein's regime and the continued struggle with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Türkiye underscore the complexity of the Kurdish trouble.
Given those geopolitical elements, the formation of an unbiased Kurdish nation faces great boundaries, as each Türkiye and Iraq are possibly to withstand the sort of move to keep their territorial integrity and countrywide pursuits.
BY SANJAY GURURAJAN
THE GEOSTRATA
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What a fab read!👏🏻 👏🏻
great analysis
very well written!
Insightful !
Very informative