BACKGROUND AND BUILD-UP

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has historical, political and territorial roots. While Russia annexed the peninsula of Crimea in March 2014 after mass demonstrations (known as the 2014 Euromaidan) and a change of government led to the ouster of the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, its legal status remains contested internationally. 

After a period of calm, Moscow-backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk in the eastern part of Ukraine declared independence in April and May of the same year, but have long been holding out against Ukrainian forces. 

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, justifying it with reference to ‘security concerns’ and the need to protect Russian-speaking populations. The invasion has devastated Ukraine and cost numerous lives, while also causing profound geopolitical implications worldwide.

IMPORTANT EVENTS

The Russia-Ukraine war timeline began with a Russian incursion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 but got stuck in 2 regions: the Donetsk, and Luhansk. The Minsk Agreements in 2014 and 2015 were intended to close the fighting but failed to end it. Russia commenced a full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, resulting in international backlash. These were followed by the battles of Mariupol, Kyiv, and the Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensives.

WESTERN AID TO UKRAINE

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine earlier in 2022, Western countries have provided billions of dollars in humanitarian, financial, and military aid to strengthen Ukraine’s fighting capabilities. 

The USA alone has given around $107 billion to the Government of Ukraine while the total aid from the USA going into Ukraine stands at around $175 billion. Out of this, $34.2 billion went into budgetary support, $2.9 billion as humanitarian support, while a whopping $69.8 billion went into military support. Apart from the USA, the EU has pledged a massive  €77.2 billion in total aid. 

The military aid from the USA to Ukraine includes M777 howitzer artillery, AIM-9 and AIM-7 air-to-air missiles, Leopard tanks, Harpoon coastal defence system, Stingers, SCALP cruise missiles, M1A1 Abrams, HIMARS rocket launchers, Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, and many more. The allied West seeks to arm Ukraine with modern weaponry to keep Russia's expansionist aims in Eastern Europe in check.

UKRAINE'S COUNTEROFFENSIVE

After resisting the Russian invasive forces for more than 4 months, the Ukrainian military planned a quick blitzkrieg-style counteroffensive in June of 2022, aimed at cutting Russian supply lines and regaining territories in the East and South of Ukraine. Kyiv opened three fronts for the ensuing counteroffensive with Orikhiv in the South, Velyka Novisilika in the middle, near the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border, and Bakhmut, Donetsk in the East. 

The ultimate objective of this counteroffensive was to cut off the land bridge which Russia had carved out by annexing Crimea back in 2014 which now after the invasion stretches from the Donbass region to Crimea. Pursuing its plans for the counteroffensive, Ukraine was able to drive the Russians out of Kharkiv, while forcing them to pull back from the western bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson. 

The summer counteroffensive from the Ukrainian side boosted the morale of the Ukrainian military while rupturing the Russian supply and communications lines across the land bridge. The counteroffensive restricted the Russian access to the entire Donbass region coming up to the Dnipro River further weakening the battle formations.

HUMANITARIAN CRISES IN THE WAKE OF WAR

In the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, around 13 million Ukrainians or one-third of the country’s population have been displaced, reports the UN refugee agency. Out of these 13 million, 8 million are forced to take refuge in neighbouring countries while the rest are internally displaced. 

There has been a civilian casualty amounting to 8983 deaths and 15442 injured, as per the latest estimates from June of 2023. The war additionally destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson, and the fighting threatened the operations in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant denying even the basic amenities such as energy and clean drinking water to the affected population. The Russian military’s utter disregard for the safety of civilian lives has been condemned by several nations across the world, but there seems to be no end to it in the short term.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC SHOCKS

The war in Ukraine came at an unfortunate time when the world was making a recovery after 2 brutal years of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the businesses were trying to expand the economy to pre-pandemic levels, the war came as a shock driving up inflation costs around the world. 

Ukraine exported around 8% of the world’s wheat and was one of the world’s top 5 biggest exporters of sunflower oil in the pre-war period. The conflict initiation by Russia has sent shockwaves around the world affecting the developing nations worldwide. This staggering lead by the two warring parties sent intense shockwaves across the world affecting the underdeveloped and developing economies the most. Nearly 258 million people in 58 nations were in food crises in 2022 alone.

CONCLUSION

Although the war in Ukraine came as a shocker for the global economy as well as the countries encompassing it, it has become more of a war of attrition, with the Russians keen on waiting till the Western will to rearm Ukraine dries out. Ukraine has been seeking more confidence from the nations and blocs around the world to help it with post-war reconstruction and recovery. The economic devastation faced by Ukraine is humongous with supply chain and logistics issues.

BY TEAM GEOSTRATA