Introduction:

The Kashmir conundrum between India and Pakistan dates back to the independence of both nations from Britain in 1947. The British Parliament passed the Indian Independence Act, 1947, which created two dominions out of the Indian subcontinent: India and Pakistan. This partition based upon religious divisions resulted into the largest mass migration in human history. On August 14, 1947, 

Pakistan was created out of the British Indian territory as a new country with West Pakistan and East Pakistan, separated by approximately 2,000 km. India became independent on August 15, 1947. Subsequently, in the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971, East Pakistan emerged as a new nation called Bangladesh.  The region of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has been at the centre of the conflict since the naissance of Pakistan in 1947. Over several decades, major wars have been fought by the two nations, and recent attacks and counter-attacks reflect the complexity of the conflict in the current times.

Timeline:

1947: Partition of India

• The partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 on religious divisions created the Hindu-dominant India and Muslim-dominant Pakistan. This partition triggered not only massive migration but also led to brutal communal violence, predominantly in Punjab and Bengal provinces. Over 15 million people chaotically migrated from both sides, leaving their livelihoods and homes.

1947-48: First India-Pakistan War, Kashmir

• Kashmir; being a princely state, was given three choices: either join India or Pakistan, or remain independent. Initially, the Maharaja of Kashmir, Hari Singh sought to be independent, however, the invasion by Pakistani tribesmen in the princely state of J&K led to its accession to India. Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession which integrated J&K into India.

• First India-Pakistan War: On October 27, 1947, the Indian armed forces  were airlifted to Srinagar airport. The war witnessed many battles in the areas of Kashmir Valley, Baramulla, Uri, Poonch, etc. On January 1, 1949, a United Nations-brokered ceasefire line divided J&K between India and Pakistan. This ceasefire agreement established the Line of Control (LoC), which exists till date.

1960: Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

• In 1960, the World Bank mediated the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan, over the utilisation of the waters of the Indus River system. According to IWT, India has control over the waters of eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, and Pakistan has control over the waters of western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

1965: Second India-Pakistan War

• The second India-Pakistan war began on August 5, 1965, when Pakistan launched Operation Gibraltar to infiltrate Kashmir, leading to a full-scale war. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed Resolution 211 for immediate ceasefire on September 20, 1965.

1966: Tashkent Declaration

• The then Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and Pakistani President Ayub Khan signed a peace agreement in Tashkent (previously in the USSR) and concluded the 1965 war.

1971: Third India-Pakistan War

• The third India-Pakistan war began on December 3, 1971, after Pakistan launched air strikes on Indian airbases, prompting India to declare war. Within thirteen days, India achieved victory, liberating Bangladesh from East Pakistan on December 16.

1972: Simla Agreement

• Simla Agreement was signed between the then Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and former Pakistani President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to normalise relationship between the two nations.

• India conducted its first nuclear test called “Smiling Buddha”  in September 1972.

1980: Insurgencies

• From the 1980s onwards, the Kashmir Valley experienced a rise in insurgency. Kashmiri youth would be trained in camps by Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and brainwashed into joining terror groups to fight against India.

1984: Operation Meghdoot

• On April 13, 1984, India took the hold of Siachen glacier, giving itself a strategic advantage. Siachen is known as the highest battlefield in the world, which witnessed the Pakistani defeat by the Indian forces.

1987: Rigging of local elections in J&K

• In 1987, local elections in Kashmir were rigged, favouring the political party led by Farooq Abdullah from the National Conference. Consequently, the valley witnessed the rise of militancy and large-scale demonstrations and attacks. Pakistan provided training and support to such militants to disturb stability and invoke violence in Kashmir.

1990: Exodus of Kashmiri Hindus

• From the late 1980s, the valley suffered from rise in religious extremism, radicalisation and militancy. The Kashmiri Hindus were forced either to ‘leave, convert, or die,’ by the extremist groups.

1999: Kargil War

• Pakistani troops infiltrated Kargil and occupied strategic points on the Indian side of the LoC. The Indian Army launched Operation Vijay to reclaim these occupied points. Additionally, the Indian Air Force conducted Operation Safed Sagar to provide support to the army. On 26th July, Kargil War officially ended, with the victory of the Indian side.

2001: Attack on Indian Parliament

• On December 13, 2001, the Indian Parliament was attacked by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorists.

2008: 26/11 Mumbai attacks

• On November 26, 2008, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists based in Pakistan carried out shootings and bombings in multiple locations in Mumbai, attacking over 175 people and injuring over 300.

2015: Multiple attacks in Kashmir

• Multiple terrorist attacks took place in J&K, in areas like Udhampur, Kathua, and Samba, by Pakistan-backed militant groups.

2016: Uri Attack

• Burhan Wani, a commander of terror group Hizbul Mujahideen was killed by Indian armed forces, which triggered protests.

• On September 18, 2016, the Indian army base in Uri was attacked by Pakistan-based terrorists, killing 19 soldiers. In retaliation, India carried “surgical strikes” on terrorist launchpads across the LoC on September 29, 2016.

2019: Pulwama Attack and Balakot Airstrike

• On February 14, 2019, a suicide bombing by a terrorist, killed 40 Indian CRPF personnel in Pulwana, J&K. Consequently, Indian Armed Forces retaliated with air strikes on training camps of JeM in Balakot, Pakistan.

• Article 370 of the Indian Constitution provided special autonomous status to J&K, which was abrogated on August 5, 2019, giving the Indian Parliament the scope to exercise its legislative powers. Further, the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, bifurcated the state of J&K into two union terrorists.

2025: Pahalgam Attack

• On April 22, 2025, terrorists from The Resistance Front (TRF), backed by LeT attacked 25 Indian and 1 Nepali tourists in Pahalgam.

Post-attack measures

• The immediate measures after the terror attack included holding of IWT in abeyance, closure of Attari border checkpost, prohibition of visas for Pakistani nationals under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme, withdrawal of armed forces advisors, and more.

Operation Sindoor

• The Indian Armed Forces under Operation Sindoor launched precision strikes on May 7, 2025, targeting nine strategic locations across PoK and Pakistan.

• On May 8, 2025, Pakistan attempted to bomb several cities in north and west India, including Jammu, Srinagar, Amritsar, etc. The Indian air defence system intercepted and neutralised incoming drones as well as missile targets. Around 300-400 drones attacked India, from Sir Creek to Leh.

• On May 9th, India targeted Pakistani Air bases and air defence systems.

• On May 10th, a so-called ceasefire was announced between India and Pakistan which was mediated by the United States. However, within a few hours, it was seen being violated by Pakistan, as drones were reported hovering near LoC.

Implications:

• Security: The region is highly volatile due to cross-border terrorism, militancy, which has perpetuated instability, and hindered peace.

• Economic: The Kashmir conflict has resulted in stagnant economic growth due to cross-border terrorism, militancy and radicalisation. This will led to loss of investment, which impacts tourism, infrastructure, and agriculture.

• Political: Constant security threats will disturb local governance and undermine local democratic systems.

• Social: Several decades of conflict has impacted the locals causing constant apprehensions and also tensions amongst communities.

Conclusion:

The Kashmir conundrum between India and Pakistan is rooted in historical, political, economical, and strategic facets. India’s neighbour – Pakistan has indoctrinated, trained, harboured terrorists, along with providing them arms and ammunition. Since its inception, Pakistan has been a notorious neighbour, sponsoring terrorism and thereby hindering India’s national security, especially with regards to Jammu and Kashmir. Post-revocation of Article 370, the valley witnessed burgeoning investments, businesses, and overall development. The central government has implemented various developmental projects to boost the economy, strengthen grassroot democracy, and foster communal harmony in the valley. However, amidst security challenges perpetuated by hostile neighbour Pakistan, the resolution over the Kashmir issue will be critical to unravel.

BY TEAM GEOSTRATA